Earlier this month,* Newsweek’s “Health Matters” columnist Jerry More resolved that
“I will not report on any amazing new treatments for anything, unless they were tested in large, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind clinical trials published in high-quality peer-reviewed medical journals.”

He was “shamed” into this by biostatistician R. Barker Bausell’s book Snake Oil Science. Based on observations of his own loved ones, Bausell explains how immensely powerful placebo effects make almost any medical treatment appear to work, even though they are often caused by faith alone. Those who feel the benefits, whether it be placebo or physical (double-blind verified), usually do not care how this comes to pass. However, Bausell makes the case that placebo effects tend to be mild and temporary.

In an ironic twist of Jerry More’s resolution, Bausell advises that those afflicted with chronic health problems seek a promising remedy from an enthusiastic promoter and take the plunge with no reservations, thus maximizing any placebo effect!

Obviously one must be extremely cautious about side effects from any such purported therapy or substance. For example, some years ago my wife and I hosted a weight-obsessed exchange 16-year-old student from Mexico who harbored strong faith in alternative medicines (an oxymoron?) for curbing appetite. One day while shopping at a local mall, she got away from me and made a bee line to a health-food store. I found her at the counter with half a dozen bottles of very potent natural (?) substances that the teenage clerk recommended to her. I hustled us out of there without making that purchase.

Blind faith just does not work well for me. I like the double-blind approach much better.

* A Big Dose of Skepticism

In the November issue of The American Statistician the Editor published this comment by David J. Finney, Professor Emeritus of Statistics at the University of Edinburgh: “On a day in 1919 or 1920…I murmured silently to myself: ‘David, you are becoming a clever boy…you have learnt to stand on one leg. What next?’…I showed creditable numerical ability in saying to myself ‘2-1-0.’ I willed myself to make…an effort to lift the foot. I rapidly became aware of a sore bottom…I never tried again but memory of the pain has given me a prejudice against any form of extrapolation from particular to general.”

In 1798, Thomas Malthus created one of the most controversial extrapolations in history in An Essay on the Principle of Population. Based on the sketchy statistics of the time, he assumed that population grows geometrically (exponential), whereas food supplies increase at an arithmetic rate (linear). No wonder he became known as “Gloomy” Malthus! Fortunately, due to development of new agricultural regions and improvements in productivity from these lands, the mass misery of his projections did not happen…yet.

In 1972, I read a book called Limits to Growth by the Club of Rome think tank. They presented a series of Malthusian projections with consumption increasing exponentially relative to linear expansion of resources. I found it terribly depressing. It seemed certain to me from all the graphs that mankind would not last beyond 2000. As subsequent developments averted what seemed sure disaster, I became ever more wary of extrapolation, especially ones that predict doom and gloom.

“Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe.”
— H. G. Wells

On the other hand, I’ve seen forecasts fizzle and become forgotten that turned out true — albeit much delayed. For example, in the spring of 1989 I co-taught a DOE class in the San Francisco Bay Area. One night my top-floor room shook so hard that it woke me up – it was an earthquake that registered a bit above 5 on the Richter scale. The next morning another earthquake rocked our training room – built on stilts just off shore on the Bay. It measured near 6. That led to a forecast that by week end there was a 20 percent probability of a really major quake. It did not materialize. However, in October, San Francisco suffered the devastating Loma Prieta earthquake – nearly 7 points on the Richter scale.

So, whereas little Finney took a fall from misguided extrapolation, Bay Area residents found themselves floored from what turned out to be a prophetically forecasted tremblor. I suppose one way of dealing with scenarios for the future is to expect, and plan, for the worst, but hope for the best, that is, hedge your bets. For example, try to keep two feet on the ground as often as possible, keep a hold on the bannister and look before you leap.