This weekend’s Wall Street Journal features a review by Stats.org editor Trevor Butterworth of a new book titled Wrong: Why Experts Keep Failing US – And How to know When Not to Trust Them. The book undermines scientists, as well as financial wizards, doctors and all others who feel they are almost always right and thus never in doubt. In fact, it turns out that these experts may be nearly as often wrong as they are right in their assertions. Butterworth prescribes as a remedy the tools of uncertainty that applied statisticians employ to good effect.
Unfortunately the people funding consultants and researchers do not want to hear any equivocation in stated results. However, it’s vital that experts convey the possible variability in their findings if we are to gain a true picture of what may, indeed, transpire.
“Error is to be expected and not something to be scorned or obscured.”
— Trevor Butterworth