“Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can’t debate so change numbers.”
– Jack Welch
Thursday morning I attended a briefing on the economy by an expert from Wells-Fargo bank. Looking over the trends in USA unemployment rates he noted that no incumbent since World War II has achieved re-election when joblessness exceeded 8 percent. Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the the national unemployment rate is now 7.8%, an improvement from 8.1% last month. How accurate is this number and is it precise enough that a 0.3% difference can be considered significant? I agree with the conclusion of this critique posted by Brookings Institution that “a large part of monthly unemployment fluctuations are spurious.” So, really, all this fuss about it being 8.1 versus 7.8 percent is really silly from a statistical point of view. However, it is entertaining!