Only 14 percent of biomedical results are wrong, after all–Is this comforting?


The Scientist reports here that new mathematical studies refute previous findings that most current published medical research findings are false due to small study sizes and bias.   I suppose–considering the original assertion of “most” announced discoveries being wrong–we can literally live with a false positive rate of ‘only’ 14%  for findings that relate ultimately to our well being.    But the best advice is:

It is still important to report estimates and confidence intervals in addition to or instead of p-values when possible so that both statistical and scientific significance can be judged by readers.

– Leah R. Jager, Jeffrey T. Leek (“Empirical estimates suggest most published medical research is true”)

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