Archive for May, 2018
Boffins baffled by baseballs being bashed beyond ballpark borders
On May 24, Major League Baseball released this scientific report on a puzzling increase–nearly 50%–in home runs from 0.86 to 1.26 per game over the last three years (2014-17).
A panel of 10 experts, including math and stats professors as well as PhDs in physics, saw nothing changed in the properties of the baseballs—size, weight, seam height, and COR (coefficient of restitution—a measure of the ball’s “bounciness”). However, they did observe a reduction in drag, an aerodynamic phenomenon that may be due to the rubber pill being more centered and thus causing the ball to stay rounder while spinning in flight. This is a very impressive explanation. But, if I were an umpire for this study, I’d call these fellows out.
Based on the results of this study, the Commissioner will, among other things, consider adding humidors to all stadiums to keep the baseballs under more controlled storage conditions, and create standards for mud rubbing. It seems that he’s getting seriously down and dirty on home runs.
I tip my ball cap to such marvelous frivolity for application of science and statistics, flavored with a fillip of voodoo. What a game!
“We do admit that we do not understand this.”
– Study Chairman Alan Nathan, Professor of Physics Emeritus, University of Illinois.
What gets measured gets gamed
Posted by mark in quality improvement on May 10, 2018
I just finished a fun listen on Audible of “The Tyranny of Metrics”, the gist of which can be read here in a WSJ article by the author—history professor Jerry Muller. It was a great ‘read’ to accomplish while commuting to and from work because I could yell “yes!” at every point Muller made without disturbing anyone at the office or at home (only passing drivers seeing me expostulating alarmingly).
In a nutshell, the book shoots down these two dictums:
- “If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it” (Lord Kelvin) and
- “What gets measured gets done.” (Tom Peters)
In actuality, what gets measured gets gamed—the prime example being the sales quotas that ruined Wells Fargo ban by incenting their employees into opening millions of fake customer accounts. Muller provides plenty of other perverse effects of measurement in healthcare, education and other arenas.
I think this admonition aimed at the quants on Wall Street, passed along in “The Tyranny of Metrics” from British historian Niall Ferguson, says it all about going overboard on measurement:
“Those that the gods want to destroy they first teach math.”
Spoken like a true professor of liberal arts.
Are you one of the elite 10% who can work out this test of logic?
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on May 2, 2018
Four cards are laid out before you, each with a letter on one side and a number on the other. You see E, 2, 5 and F. Which cards should you turn over that will prove the following rule: If there is an E on one side, the number on the other side must be a 5? See the answer by Manil Suri, Professor at University of Maryland, in this April 15 New York Times article that asks “Does Math Make You Smarter?”.
As to whether math really does make you smarter, the answer remains unclear. However, those who do well with numbers make far more money. That is not surprising, but the multiplier may be. See this U.S. News report (or not if you failed the test above) for the statistics.