On May 24, Major League Baseball released this scientific report on a puzzling increase–nearly 50%–in home runs from 0.86 to 1.26 per game over the last three years (2014-17).
A panel of 10 experts, including math and stats professors as well as PhDs in physics, saw nothing changed in the properties of the baseballs—size, weight, seam height, and COR (coefficient of restitution—a measure of the ball’s “bounciness”). However, they did observe a reduction in drag, an aerodynamic phenomenon that may be due to the rubber pill being more centered and thus causing the ball to stay rounder while spinning in flight. This is a very impressive explanation. But, if I were an umpire for this study, I’d call these fellows out.
Based on the results of this study, the Commissioner will, among other things, consider adding humidors to all stadiums to keep the baseballs under more controlled storage conditions, and create standards for mud rubbing. It seems that he’s getting seriously down and dirty on home runs.
I tip my ball cap to such marvelous frivolity for application of science and statistics, flavored with a fillip of voodoo. What a game!
“We do admit that we do not understand this.”
– Study Chairman Alan Nathan, Professor of Physics Emeritus, University of Illinois.