Archive for October, 2018
“Data are profoundly dumb”
Posted by mark in Basic stats & math, Uncategorized on October 22, 2018
This is the controversial view of Judea Pearl and Dana Mackenzie expressed in “Mind over Data”—the lead article in the August issue of Significance. In this excerpt from The Book of Why these co-authors explain “how the founders of modern statistics ‘squandered’ the chance to establish the science of causal inference”. They warn against “falsely believing the answers to all scientific questions reside in the data, to be unveiled through clever data-mining tricks.”
“Lucky is he who has been able to understand the cause of things.”
– Virgil (29 BC)
Pearl and Mackenzie are optimistic that the current “Causal Revolution” will lead to far greater understanding of underlying mechanisms. However, by my reckoning, randomized controlled trials remain the gold standard for establishing cause and effect relationships. Only then can the data speak loud and clear.
Science class a real blast
Making your own erupting volcano is a classic experiment to do at home or in science class. Some, such as the ammonium dichromate one in the video, should not be done without strict supervision and safety precautions.
However, the standard experimental volcano with vinegar and baking soda generally does not cause much harm; that is, until an overzealous mom in India took it to a new level with a blast that injured 59. Fortunately, as reported here, the two students who went to hospital came out intact. Perhaps a non-working volcano might be advised in future.