Archive for January, 2021
Killer reveals contents of International Shark Attack File
Posted by mark in Nature, Uncategorized on January 26, 2021
I will bet the caught your attention. It did mine but for reasons more benign than indicated by my sensational blog title: The report comes from an outdoors columnist for Florida’s Treasure Coast Newspapers named Ed Killer. He passed along the latest statistics on shark attacks released Monday by the Florida Museum on Natural History. It turns out that “interactions” with these dreaded aquatic carnivores decreased by nearly 10% to 129 worldwide in 2020. Unfortunately, deaths increased to 13, up by 2 from 2019, including the first ever in Maine. Australia led the world for shark fatalities and came in second to the USA for bites.
“When a surfer gets bit in New Smyrna Beach [Florida], it’s often by a blacktip and requires some stitches to recover from. But when a surfer gets bit in Australia, it’s by a 2000-pound 15-foot-long great white shark. A nibble from a white shark can take off a leg.”
– Gavin Naylor, Director, Florida Program for Shark Research*
All this talk about sharks makes me feel a lot better being homebound in Minnesota for the time being. In 1975 my wife and I moved to California just in time for the premier of Jaws at the local drive-in movie theater. I suffered twitchy-legged nightmares for some time afterwards imagining a great white shark lurking at the foot of my bed. Watching this Danish advertisement provides an antidote my now-revived shark fears.
*See details on the data science behind their The International Shark Attack File (ISAF), and a fascinating animated graphic showing attacks by location worldwide over 50 years, here.
Experiment reveals secret to maximizing microwave popcorn—Part two: Results
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on January 3, 2021
Nothing beats microwave popcorn for snacking. That’s what makes unpopped kernels (UPK) so aggravating—not just for the loss of yummy yield, but also for the pain from accidentally biting down on them. Therefore, I am quite pleased to report significantly reduced UPK discovered by my designed experiment detailed in part 1 of this blog.
The big reveal comes from the interaction plot showing that the effect of preheating depends on the timing method.
First off, look up at the upper left of the graph and notice that the default GE timing, done by a humidity sensor, creates significantly greater UPKs—the lower end of the least significant difference (LSD) bars (p<0.5) fall above the higher ends of all other LSDs. The actual results using my GE microwave popcorn button, shown by the red (no preheat) and green (yes-preheat) circles on the left, ranged from 41 to 92—far too many UPKs per bag.
Next, see how the combination of GE++ (adding time) with no preheating wins out overall. The actual counts, shown by the red circles at middle bottom, ranged from 23 to 34—far fewer UPKs than before.
Life is good: Best not bother to put in 1 cup of water and wait for a minute; also, no complications introduced by setting up my cell phone, quieting the household, and standing by to turn off the microwave when alerted by Popcorn Expert. All I need to do is press the popcorn button and then 9 twice for the extra time. Easy! And, by the way, the popcorn tastes great—no burning!
I never would have made this significant improvement without the more-precise:
- measurement of UPK counts (versus weight) and
- Poisson-regression (versus ordinary least squares) modeling*
*(available in the newly released version 13 of Design-Expert® software)
I encourage you to do your own microwave popcorn experiment, ideally multifactor ones using Design-Expert version 13, now available as a free, fully functional, 14-day trial. Many factors can be tested—first and foremost being brand of popcorn and time in the microwave. Two ‘hacks’ posted to the question-and-answer website Quora intrigue me:
Another hack botched by me (as confessed in part 1) is pouring the popcorn into a vented microwave container. Throw one or more of these factors into your design of experiment (DOE) and please let me know the statistical outcome along with the raw data.
I remain a few dozen kernels short of the perfect microwave popcorn: Zero UPK with every exploded morsel being incredibly delicious.
Every once in a while, someone will mail me a single popcorn kernel that didn’t pop. I’ll get out a fresh kernel, tape it to a piece of paper and mail it back to them.
Orville Redenbacher