Archive for June, 2023
Hurricane season off to a hot start with great uncertainty ahead
Posted by mark in Nature, Uncategorized, Weather on June 30, 2023
After narrowly dodging Ian’s devastating blow last fall—predicted the day before landfall to hit just a few blocks from my southwest Florida winter home, I am keeping a close watch on this year’s storms.
Just prior to 2024 season on June 1, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted it would be near normal. The NOAA forecasters figure on the winds from the Pacific’s El Nino counteracting the storm inducing temperatures in the Atlantic.
A clash of the titans lies ahead as developing El Niño and notable warmth in the Tropical Atlantic go toe-to-toe.
Ryan Truchelut—the Weather Tiger’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for May 2023
The Weather Tiger (quoted above) calculated Florida landfall odds this year at slightly above 50/50 for at least 1 hurricane. That was before Tropical Storm Cindy formed behind Tropical Storm Bret in June, creating the first case of two storms in the tropical Atlantic in June since record keeping began in 1851–an alarmingly aggressive start to the season.
Based on these forecasts and the history of USA hurricanes, it seems certain to me that, before 2023 is over, our home will come into harm’s way. Therefore, I keep a close watch on NOAA’s graphical forecasts that display cones showing the probable track of the center of every tropical cyclone. These cones create a great deal of consternation and confusion due to difficulties comprehending probabilities, overly high expectations in the accuracy and precision of forecasting models, and other issues.
While admiring the continuing advancements in meteorology, including this year’s extension to 7 days for hurricane forecasts, I believe (but only half seriously) that if a weather forecast one-day ahead puts me at the bullseye of an oncoming storm, then it will be a miss. This worked for Hurricane Ian. But to hedge my bets, I greatly reinforced our home over the winter to resist wind, rain and flooding—bringing it all up to current hurricane codes and beyond.
Best be safe!
Masterful experiment delivers delectable chocolate chip cookies
Posted by mark in food science on June 27, 2023
There’s no better place to learn about design of experiments (DOE) than your own kitchen. Not being much of a cook or a baker, I do well by restricting my food science to microwave popcorn. Therefore, I happily agreed to help fellow DOE expert Greg Hutto advise his student Jessica Keel how to design an experiment on home-made chocolate chip cookies.
“Want to learn more in your own kitchen? Try making some cookies with different variations in ingredients. It’s a fantastic way to understand and help perfect your signature chocolate chip cookie.”
Danielle Bauer, The (Food) Science of Chocolate Chip Cookies
Optimizing cookies involves a tricky combination of mixture components and process factors. Furthermore, adhering to a gold standard for valid statistical studies—randomization—presents great difficulties. For each run in the combined design, the experimenter must mix one cookie according to the specified recipe and then bake it at the stated time and temperature. It’s much simpler to make a trayful of cookies with varying ingredients and bake them all at once. This can be accommodated by a specialized DOE called a split plot.*
Jessica took on a big challenge: Coming up with not one, but two chocolate chip recipes—soft-and-thick, versus thin-and-crispy. Starting from the specifications for Original Nestle Toll House Chocolate Chip Cookies, she used Design-Expert® software https://www.statease.com/software/design-expert/ to lay out an optimal, combined experiment-design based on a KCV model.** Jessica divided the runs into two blocks to spread it out over her Saturday-Sunday weekend. The experiment determined the effects of four recipe components—butter, granulated sugar, brown sugar, vanilla–baked while varying two hard-to-change process factors—temperature and time—in convenient groups (whole plots).
Jessica cleverly measured the density (by water displacement) and breaking strength (via the ‘penny test’ pictured) of each cookie before handing them over to her panel of tasters for sensory evaluation of taste, appearance and softness on a scale of 1 (worst) to 9 (best).
Focusing on taste alone, this combined mixture-process experiment led to a recipe—heavy on butter, vanilla free—that, when baked at the ideal conditions—325 deg F for 18 minutes—scores near perfect, as can be seen in the ternary contour plot produced by Design-Expert.
See Jessica’s full report for all the details . Then do your own optimal mixture-process experiment to ‘level up’ your homemade chocolate chip cookies. Yum!
*For details, see this tutorial from Stat-Ease that deploys a combined split-plot design to create a “rich and delicious” Lady Baltimore Cake .
**See my webinar on How to Unveil Breakthrough Synergisms Between Mixture and Process Variables.
Never ending quest for the perfect grind of coffee
Posted by mark in food science, pop on June 12, 2023
This graphic illustration from the National Coffee Association provides some amazing statistics in support of the claim that their beverage reigns supreme. I am doing more than my per ‘cupita’ (pun intended) of the nearly half a billion mugs of coffee that Americans drink every day.
Back before we all started working from home during the pandemic and kept on doing so afterwards, my son Hank (now VP of Software Development) and most of our Stat-Ease colleagues jived on java (the real stuff, not the coding language). He and our lead statistician Martin Bezener (now President) conducted a very sophisticated experiment on coffee-grinding, as reported by him in our September 2016 Stat-Teaser. Check out Hank’s dramatic video-detailing of the split-plot coffee experiment.
With the aid of Design-Expert® software’s powerful statistical tools, Martin discovered the secret for making delicious coffee: Use a burr, not a blade, grinder, and go for the finest granulation. Based on these findings, I upgraded my grinder to the highly-rated Baratza Encore, which works really well (though very noisy!).
However, a new study published this May in a Special Issue on Food Physics reveals an uneven extraction in coffee brewing. Evidently, “a complicated interplay between an initial imbalance in the porosities and permeabilities” creates “a cutoff point” where “grinding coffee more finely results in lower extraction.” Along the same lines, but with open content and some nice pictures and graphs to lighten up a lot of dense math (e.g., Navier-Stokes equations for fluid dynamics), see this earlier publication on Systematically Improving Espresso. It “strongly suggests that inhomogeneous flow is operative at fine grind settings, resulting in poor reproducibility and wasted raw material.”
So now that experiments show that finer may not always be better, the quest for the perfect grind continues!