When I first ran a multifactor design of experiment (DOE) on microwave popcorn in 1993,* the bags contained 3.5 ounces of product. Since then, this product and many other foodstuffs suffered from shrinkflation—a way for their manufactures to fool us into paying the same for less. For example, Pop Secret—one of the snacks tested in my 1993 DOE, now comes in 3.2-ounce bags—a shrinkage of 8.6 percent over the years. Tricky!
I asked Google’s experimental Generative AI for stats on shrinkflation. GAI (my new go-to guy!) tells me that:
- The most common products to experience shrinkflation are savory snacks, chocolate, and sweets. (Popcorn fits the bill.)
- In the US, 71% of people have noticed shrinkflation, with 57% reporting multiple incidents in the past year. Baby boomers are more likely to notice shrinkflation than millennials and Gen Zers. (I am a baby boomer and I am well aware of this trend.)
- Shrinkflation can be harder to notice than price increases because the price of the item stays the same, making it harder to budget. (That’s the idea!)
- According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), shrinkflation has little impact on overall inflation rates. A BLS report from March said that the price of snacks inflated by 26% from January 2019 to October 2023. However, shrinkflation accounted for only 2.5 percentage points of the increase. (OK, so maybe we are making too big of a deal about this, but nobody likes to be tricked.)
The increasing cost of food products is currently creating a great deal of consternation, despite it seemingly abating. But so long as there’s plenty of delicious popcorn to share, even at a higher price for less of it, I don’t mind much.
However, when it comes to the recent trend for popcorn manufacturers selling “mini bags” with 1.5 ounces of product, I draw the line!