Archive for category Nature
Hurricane forecasters getting in the zone with their cone
Posted by mark in Nature, Uncategorized on September 13, 2018
Owning a home in Florida, I keep a close eye on the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts throughout the June-through-November season. I see that Florence is now predicted to make landfall around mid-day tomorrow just south of Wilmington, North Carolina—the gateway to the aptly named Cape Fear. Even though that’s less than 24 hours away, it’s still subject to a broad zone of uncertainty–on the order of 100’s of miles. However, it’s very impressive that the NHC forecast made 48 hours ago remains right on. According to a Wall Street Journal report yesterday their 5-day conical projections have improved by more than 100 nautical miles (115 land miles) in radius over the past decade. That’s even more impressive.
However, WSJ advises we’d best remain very leery of the NHC’s spaghetti plots (an alternative to the cone), because they include very simple forecasts along with those that are state-of-the-art. This can be very disconcerting as I discovered when Irma came along a year ago to graze my place along the west coast of Florida. You can see in this Business Insider report on Irma that, only 3 days beforehand, this hurricane’s predicted landfalls ranged from Louisiana to Massachusetts. The article says that NHC suggests that people not focus on the specific tracks. That seems obvious to me based on the ridiculously high variance. I’d like to see these tracks vary by thickness according to the sophistication of the models—the thinner the weaker.
In any case, let’s hope that Florence fizzles out, after all.
Creatures (other than cats) with innate sense of direction and purpose
I am continually amazed by creatures great and small who know just where to go and what to do. For example, who would have thought that a dog could apply calculus to find the optimal angle at which to jump into a lake and fetch a tennis ball. See the proof here from a mathematics professor who worked it out after observing his Welsh Corgi “Elvis”.
Naturally ants do very well going about their business, as we’ve all observed when they get into our homes. I was alarmed to hear recently that these industrial insects apply an algorithm for building bridges over any gaps that hinder their travel. See how they do it in this 2/26/18 blog by Quanta Magazine. Things are getting a bit too ‘swarm’ for my comfort when entire institutes such as this one do nothing but model collective behavior. To what ends will this knowledge be applied? I foresee it being used by the military to program hordes of diabolical drones. But, perhaps, it will mainly be for more peaceful pursuits, such as managing traffic on par with ants, who according to this report, never get into a jam.
But just counteract the notion that creatures might be a lot smarter than we think, either individually, like Elvis, or collectively, such as ants, there’s this cat who showed a lack of capability in its calculations of distance.
Algae World News: Red snow melts glaciers
Just in time for our first snow in Minnesota when we eagerly bring out our cross-country skis and sleds—both self-propelled and motorized, comes this news of a melt-inducing microbe. I’ve seen and tasted the resulting “watermelon snow” up in the Rockies. It seemed harmless enough—a natural frozen novelty. But a simple comparative experiment by Alaskan researchers showed a 17% increase in melting where the snow became darkened by the algae stain. On the positive side it will be watermelon snow-cones all around.
‘Roid rage
Posted by mark in Nature, Uncategorized on October 12, 2017
Let’s not get caught off guard by an Earth-killing asteroid. As Dylan Thomas said: “Do not go gentle into that good night, …rage against the dying of the light.”
That is the mission of NASA. If you are reading this, chances are that Asteroid 2012 TC4 whizzed by today at 30,000 miles per hour—closely monitored by a network of observatories. Check out the details at this NASA website. They take asteroid defense very seriously. Their defense plans for redirecting asteroids will be tested out in 2022 on a double asteroid Didymos B as explained here.
Keep in mind that asteroid 1950DA, about three-quarters a mile wide—big enough to destroy our planet, has a 0.1% chance of hitting the earth 2818. In case NASA does not succeed in their defense efforts, start digging now and you might get hunkered down enough to survive for a short while after that.
Arctic vortex delivers an impressive “Cold Force” for mid-December
As you can see, I awoke this morning to an outside temperature of minus 20.2 degrees F, which comes to precisely minus 29.00000 on the Celsius scale according to this metric converter. When I opened the window, the air provided an impressive slap to my face—no need for coffee to provide an eye-opener. However, I had to quickly shut out the cold before it gave me a brain freeze.
The iconic fellow pictured on my La Crosse Technology Wireless Weather Station, whom I generally find very indicative on temperature, did not get dressed warmly enough today. He needs a mask to avoid a frostbitten nose and frozen ears. When the Arctic express whistles down into our mid-Continent winter wasteland, I fall back on the Anderson Cold Scale, which came up just shy of Freezing Force 6 in the predawn hour. That tells me to don 6 layers before venturing out for my morning walk. I start with Long Johns. If this is your first winter up north and you need a warm undergarment, check out this traditional one from the Gentleman’s Emporium — fire engine red with rear fireman’s flap.
New Summer Glory Index provides proof positive of great weather
Minnesotans love to point out what a pain in the posterior (PIP) it is to endure the climate from November through March. Minnesota’s Department of Natural Resources (DNR) State Climatology Office (SCO) quantifies the suffering with this Winter Misery Index (WMI). As you can see by their chart, last year’s WMI ranked highly for PIP.
I actually like the cold (good for ice skating!) and snow (great for cross-country skiing). Therefore I agree with the DNR suggesting the WMI be renamed WFI, that is, Winter Fun Index. However, even I must admit to favoring spring, summer and fall over the winter.
It’s been especially nice here for the past few months—only a few really hot days. This is confirmed by the MN DNR climatology wonks who concocted this Summer Glory Index (SGI). They figure the sweet spot (“full credit”) is high and low temperatures of 73-79 F and 57-64, respectively, with less than 60 F dew point and at most 0.01 inches of rain. By these measures we Twin Citians are enjoying a mostly glorious summer.
Looking back some years on the chart a few summers fall into the “wretched” category, primarily due to extreme heat. I recall many a summer night lying awake in my upper bunk on the second floor of our home in St. Paul with the window pulled down and begging for the least bit of breeze. That really was wretched. Thank goodness for air conditioning now being so ubiquitous in buildings and vehicles!
Check out my granddaughter Laine enjoying our great outdoors. Glory be! : )
When you gotta glow, you gotta glow
In my youth I enjoyed a pop ditty by Johnny Mercer about a little glow worm. This song is now stuck in my head. It is an “ear worm”! It emerged from a corner of my brain when I toured the Waitomo Caves in the North Island of New Zealand yesterday and saw the wonderful constellations of glow worms that populate its cavern ceilings.
I have no clue how to eliminate an ear worm, but it turns out that glow worms are susceptible to increases in carbon dioxide according a poster presentation of this scientific study that kept me occupied while awaiting our Maori guide at the cave mouth. Not surprisingly the half million tourists get the most blame. It’d be far worse if not for the glowworms providing such a breathtaking sight.
Sea turtles nesting now—only 1 out of 1000 will make it to maturity
Walking the beach yesterday on the beach by our condo on Florida’s West Coast I came across this sea turtle nest. Most likely it’s a loggerhead, but it could be a rare Kemp’s ridley according to biologists at Mote’s Sea Turtle Conservation and Research Program.
As you can see in this news report —including video of the female digging in, somewhere on this beach they recorded a nest made by this most uncommon of all sea turtles. Unfortunately, the odds of any one baby living to an age when they can reproduce, which might take up to 30 years, are only 1 out of 1000.* It does not help to be sharing their nesting ground with all the people along the coast, but, with the admonitions of biologists and concerned citizens to not disturb the eggs and keep the lights down, perhaps their chances will improve.
*One of the hazards, of particular concern for the Kemp’s ridley turtle, is toxins from Florida’s red tides based on this new research by Mote scientists.
Oh, snow–but it was ice out
Walking the dog to the park on a decent day yesterday (today being terribly cold and rainy) I came across this remnant of the mountain of snow piled up in the cul de sac. Yuk! On the other hand, many of the area’s lakes enjoyed ice-out this week. Nearby White Bear Lake was declared open on Wednesday morning (it’s a bit of a judgement call, evidently). According to records that go back 86 years this year’s ice-out fell nine days later than the median date but well ahead of the record of May 4, 1950.
I am looking forward to the dirty-snow-out coming soon. Then I feel it really will be Spring.
P.S. I noticed the postal-deliverer wearing the USPS summer-shorts uniform, so that’s a good sign. : )
White squirrel on fresh snow
On my triple-long commute into town this morning I enjoyed my scenic route along County Road B2 in Roseville. One may as well make a savory slurpee out of the snowstorm as sit in traffic stewing. This route paralleled the gob-stomped Highway 36 so moving along the stopped traffic made this bypass all the more satisfying. I happily paid heed to the calming advice of the mellifluous public radio announcer that “you will get to where you going in due time.”
While admiring the flakes falling on the white-bedecked urban forest I was startled by a clump of snow scurrying down a tree trunk and then disappearing when it hit the deck. It was an albino* squirrel who managed to survive standing out all summer amongst all the greenery. Cool!
You really can see a lot just by looking—to paraphrase Yogi Berra.
*Not being close enough to look it in the eye, I cannot be sure it wasn’t a plain old white squirrel (black eyed) but from the map posted at this website , my guess is it’s an albino. If so, that’s very rare—only 1 out of 100,000 squirrels exhibit this trait, according to my research.