Archive for category pop
Time to lighten up on homework?
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on October 21, 2012
The Wall Street Journal’s Market Watch this Friday posted the data shown in this chart. For the 11 countries shown** you can see why WSJ seconds the call by French President Hollande to ban all homework.
Students would party hearty but this laissez-faire approach will not fly with those blessed with ambitious parents. Nevertheless the call for less homework, fueled by new data from the National Center for Education Statistics, reinforces other studies going back at least a decade.
It will be interesting to see what emerges as a consensus for a the happy medium on amount of homework assigned. Four hours per night seems way too much, especially at the 8th grade level.
Meta-analysis of hundreds of studies done on the effects of homework shows that the evidence supporting the practice is, at best, modest. Homework seems to be most useful in high school and for subjects like math. At the elementary school level homework seems to be of marginal or no academic value.
– Malcolm Gladwell
*See the report here
**I took out Saudi Arabia, whose result of 34% below average, given 11% being assigned over 4 hours of homework per night, fell far below even these very off-putting predictions–an outlier statistically.
Acknowledgment: Thanks to Devan Govender for alerting me to this issue.
Rock on with algorithms?
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on October 2, 2012
I started off my career as an experiment designer before the advent of cheap calculators. Paying $400 for an HP unit that (gasp!) did logarithms went far beyond my wherewithal in 1974. That was roughly the tuition for one college quarter at University of Minnesota if memory serves. I managed to cover that cost plus room and board by working 24 hours a week washing pots and pans at a hospital kitchen. Those were the days!
Calculating effects from the two-level factorial designs I did that summer as an intern at a chemical research lab required a lot of hand calculations—many numbers to add and subtract. Thankfully a fellow named Yates developed an algorithm after these experiments were invented in the 1930s. Following his directions one could tally things up and even do check sums without having to think much. That’s what algorithms do—provide a recipe for solving problems.
As an engineer I have a healthy respect for algorithms, but my wife, who works as a preschool teacher, thinks this is geeky. For example, I admired the nerdy professor in the TV show “Numbers” that aired a few years ago. But every time he expounded on some algorithm that ingeniously saw the pattern of a serial criminal, she just laughed. Ironically she is now hooked on a show called “Person of Interest” that is based on predictive policing, that is, using algorithms to calculate a crime to come. That scares me!
According to a new book by Christopher Steiner titled Automate This: How Algorithms Came to Rule Our World (see this Wall Street Journal review) all of us had best be on our guard against seemingly clever ways to systematically solve problems. It seems that the engineers, mathematicians, programmers and statisticians who come up with these numerical recipes invaded Wall Street. They became known as the “Quants”—dominating the way stocks now get traded.
The problem with all this (even I have to admit) is that these systematic approaches to things take all the fun out of making choices. Do we really want algorithms to pick our soul mates, invest our money, etcetera? I am up for algorithms like Yate’s that quickly solve mathematical problems. A good example of this is the first known algorithm recorded on clay tablets in 2500 B. C. that helped Sumerian traders divvy up a given amount of grain equally to a varying number of recipients. However when things become capricious with many unknowns that are unknowable being thrown into the mix, I’d rather make my own decisions guided by wise counsel.
There is an elephant in the room whenever it comes to discussing computer algorithms, particularly highly automated ones. Almost all such algorithms are inaccurate. They are inaccurate for many reasons, the most important of which is that human behavior is fickle. The inaccuracy could be shockingly high.
– Kaiser Fung, author of Numbers Rule Our World
I really shouldn’t bring this up, but do you suppose certain politician might be spending a lot of money on algorithmic solutions to how they can win election? Do these algorithms have any qualms about turning their protagonists into nabobs of negativism? I do not believe that an algorithm has any heart, unfortunately. An algorithm is like Honey Badger—it just don’t care.
How to better your brain to make it think and retain
Buried in my file of fodder for blogs I re-discovered a heads-up from the New York Times on 1/21/11 that giving yourself a quick quiz after studying something once works better than going over and over it. The test-triggered active retrieval promoted meaningful learning by half in terms of how much students remembered a week later.
If you know something, or if you have stored information about an event from the distant past, and never use that information, never think of it, your brain is functionally equivalent to that of an otherwise identical brain that does not “contain” that information.
— Cognitive neuroscientist Endel Tulving quoted in this publication in Current Directions in Psychological Science of research on active retrieval by Jeffrey D. Karpicke of Purdue University
Coincidentally I just read this passage in “Brenner and God” by Wolf Haas, three time winner of the German Thriller Prize, which struck a chord about how the mind works in mysterious ways: “…just like a light that’s too bright can be bad for the eyes, so, too, can a mind that’s too awake be not at all good for thoughts…a half-asleep person can always outmatch an awake person by a long shot, no discussion.”
This happens with me when I am really wrapped up in a writing project or dealing with a very tough problem. Then I cannot sleep well as thoughts keep winding through my head. Often as I am nearly into a dream an answer comes to me. Then the only thing is to get up and write it down in the hopes that next morning it still makes sense. In any case, if I do not make a note, I then cannot sleep for fear of forgetting it. But surprisingly these ideas do usually hold up to the light of day, albeit not always terribly brilliant.
Does this happen to you too?
Polysci prof asks “Is Algebra Necessary”?
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on July 29, 2012
I was appalled to see this titular question on the front of today’s (Sunday) New York Times opinion section. It came along with this sidebar quote:
There is no good reason to force students to master quadratic equations. Doing so holds them back.
That really riles me up, seeing as how these polynomials work so well for response surface methods (RSM) for process optimization. The author, Andrew Hacker–emeritus professor of political science at City University of New York, believes that, by making math mandatory, our educational system filters out talented scholars. As an alternative to hard-core number-crunching, he proposes the “exciting courses” in ‘citizen statistics’ such as the Consumer Price Index. His aim is “to treat mathematics as a liberal art, making it as accessible and welcoming as sculpture or ballet.”
I enjoy seeing statues and I admire the grace and athleticism of dancers; however, Hacker’s vision is for me dystopian. But so long as the educational system provides for a branching of those who like math versus the others who do not, then we get the best of all worlds. I agree–let’s not force algebra on those who abhor it.
Danube nicely routed through Vienna and Budapest
I’ve just returned from a wonderful conference in Vienna of European and African (plus one Malaysian) Design-Expert® software users. Afterwards I spent the weekend in Budapest. First off I must marvel at the chances of a magnificent river such as the Danube just happening to wind its way through these two great cities, as well as Bratislava and Belgrade—all four being capitals. Surely this fortuitous routing of the waterway evidences a higher power. ; )
My knowledge of the histories of these regions in Austria and Hungary increased many-fold, but of course I must acknowledge starting with a very low denominator on this ratio. The tour of the private quarters of the Habsburg Emperors went far too much into the sad story of Sissi—the beautiful Empress who lived like a beautiful bird in a gilded cage and ultimately died at the hands of an anarchist run amok (he actually meant to kill another royal, but settled for her). See the sordid details here.
The history of Budapest was laid out nicely in a display I stumbled across in the Royal Palace on Castle Hill. Via a series of a dozen or so placards with associated artifacts, this stroll through time told a story of repeated destruction. It starts with the mid 13th century construction of a walled town to fend off the Mongol hordes. Then in another hundred years it continues with the building of a keep by Prince Istvan the Angry (a royal pain—I am sure). After some further hundreds of years the Turks came in and the Turks came out. The story told at the church on the Hill is that their ammunition exploded and a statue of Virgin Mary burst out of the wall that they’d plastered over when converting it to a mosque. This catalyzed the successful end of the siege by Christian forces. Holy Mary! Coming to the 20th century things get even worse with the two world wars and the cold war, which of course resulted in various occupations by unwanted outsiders. But all is good now, I think, other than the armies of Americans and other tourists coming left and right on Viking longboats for four-day forays around the town flinging forints (the Hungarian currency) to the local shopkeepers and restaurateurs. It could be worse!
Statisticians apply stylometry to identify authors and they invent algorithms that assess essays
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on June 20, 2012
My colleague Tryg, who, like me, loves word play, drew my attention to this podcast* that explains how “By Their Words You Shall Know Them.” I teed it up on my smart phone and listened on my way to work yesterday—a fun way to pass my half hour commute into Minneapolis from my home in Stillwater, Minnesota. One thing that caught my ear was the early 1960s work by Harvard statistician Frederick Mosteller to pin down who wrote 12 of the 85 Federalist papers published under the pen name “Publius”. He and colleague David Wallace (University of Chicago) applied Bayes; theorem to attribute these writings to James Madison (as opposed to Alexander Hamilton). Mosteller also led the way to today’s reliance on statistics in sports by doing the first known academic analysis of baseball in 1946—concluding that luck rules even in a seven game World Series. He didn’t agree that, though the Cardinals beat his home town Red Sox, the best team actually won.
This analytical dissection of written words has come to be known as “stylometry”. As computing power increases and algorithms develop, writings are being put to the test. For example, see this New York Times Digital Domain column from earlier this month that details developments in ‘essay-scoring engines’. For now the students hold the upper hand on computer-based grading of papers—web-based essay mills can easily throw together fact-laden gibberish that fools the virtual professors. These are easily seen by teachers when they skim the results—check out some goofy passages passed along by Duke University professor Dan Ariely in this editorial for the Los Angeles Times .
The advent of spell-checking and grammar inspection in word processors has been a boon for writers. However, passing these tests does not necessarily lead to clear prose. When I started work as an engineer, the head of our process development group handed me a little booklet by Robert Gunning on “How to Take the Fog Out of Writing”. He advocated short, active sentences—not the passive, long and pedantic style I’d grown accustomed to from academia. See how your writing scores for fog using this online tool by Simon Bond. The quote below scored 20.86. This paragraph came back with a fog index of 9.152 (up to this clause to be precise!). Gunning’s score estimates the years of formal education needed to understand text on a first reading. Thus my writing supposedly can be understood by 10th grader. Draw your own conclusions on the readability of our founding fathers.
“As there is a degree of depravity in mankind which requires a certain degree of circumspection and distrust, so there are other qualities in human nature which justify a certain portion of esteem and confidence.”
– Madison, Federalist Papers #55, 346
*By online Slate magazine’s Lexicon Valley host Mike Vuolo
Marshmallows measure the speed of light (and get put to other good uses)
One of my favorite blogs, Flowing Data, provided me the heads-up on a great lecture by Adam Savage (the Mythbuster’s guy) called “Simple ideas lead to scientific discoveries”. I really enjoyed all of his stories, but especially the one on Hippolyte Fizeau’s measurement of the speed of light in 1849. Ingenious!
Coincidentally, my brother Paul forwarded me a detailing of how one can measure the speed of light with a tray of mini-marshmallows! Check it out at this Science Blog written by theoretical astrophysicist Ethan Siegel. This sharp-fingered fellow (if you view his blog you will see what I mean) goes on to tout a marshmallow-made diorama that ‘peeps’ recent claims of particles going faster than the speed of light.
That leads me to puffing up my daughter Emily, who achieved the “peeple’s choice” award in the Saint Paul Pioneer Press Ninth Annual Marshmallow Peeps Diorama Contest. She and two of her closest peeps produced The Mupeeps Take Minnepeepolis. It looks very much like the view out of my window from Stat-Ease headquarters east of downtown Minneapolis.
By the way, my favorite Muppets are Bunsen and Beaker. See them demo their invention of fireproof paper here. At the Muppets Lab one should always be prepared with fresh marshmallows on a stick. I advise going for two at a time. o——<8
Holing up on a frozen Minnesota lake
The March issue of Minnesota Business magazine, a valuable source of information and insight for growing companies,* provided a fascinating statistic, hard to believe really: 25,000—the number of ice fishing holes drilled last month for an ice-fishing contest on Gull Lake. Minnesota-based StikeMaster Corporation provided the augers. See their video for a demonstration.
Meanwhile (reported on page 44), elsewhere on Gull Lake (far from the 25,000 holes, I hope), Grand View Lodge offered the ideal meeting place for getting away from the office. See this report from our local CBS television affiliate—you will be amazed.
Sadly it seems that spring is nearly sprung so we must now endure 6 months of warm weather before the fun can begin again.
*Full disclosure: My daughter Emily is Graphic Designer for the production of this publication by Tiger Oak Media of Minneapolis.
Getting a head of beer
With winter winding down my thoughts turn to warmer times ahead when the cover comes off the grill and a cold beer hits the spot. Last weekend my daughter and her husband motored down to New Ulm for Schell Brewery’s Bock Fest—a sure harbinger of Spring (and the desperation of home-bound Minnesotans). Increasingly I find myself turning to this next generation for keeping me on the bubble for brews. For example, I now know that it’s helpful to carmelize freshly-tapped bock beer by poking it with a red-hot iron—preferably one laid among fiery logs until glowing hot. 
But never mind that, I want to pass along some results from another of this younger set, Tracy Lenz, on a more mundane aspect of drinking beer—achieving just the right head of foam on the pour. For a graduate class in industrial engineering at Arizona State University (ASU) taught by DOE-guru Doug Montgomery, she used Design-Expert® software to experiment on foam height. A local microbrewer suggested that Tracy’s project team study keg pressure, temperature at keg and using Biofoam to make the brew more ‘sudsy’. The team included two very different beers in the same experiment design, which turned out to be problematic for modeling, so let’s concentrate on one—an American red ale.*
It turns out that red ales foam readily so they need no encouragement with Biofoam. Take a look at this response surface plot from the ASU study. Figuring on 2 centimeters of foam as a good head puts the sweet spot (shaded green) at the no biofoam (-1) side with pressure needed to be set low (-1). This result is achieved only if temperature is maintained at low level.
So there you go—a vital problem (especially for graduate-engineering students) solved. Just one catch though—how you pour the beer into the glass may be the biggest factor for achieving a good head. Here again the next generation comes to my rescue, for example last summer at an outdoor reception that featured a beer wagon with my favorite on tap: Lift Bridge Beer Company’s Farm Girl Saison ale. My glass foamed over no matter how I positioned it under the tap. It turns out that the trick is pouring along the side and then at just the right moment straightening up the glass while turning off the flow. See what I mean via this Youtube video. I found it easier just to stand by the beer wagon with an empty pint and a forlorn look until one of the younger fellows took pity on me. Cheers!
*I learned from one of my sons that an ale ferments at the top, whereas a lager ferments at that bottom. This is just one of many differences that are detailed by this beer-faq.
Proofing Blackbeard’s rum
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on September 11, 2011
Being only about a week from this year’s Talk Like a Pirate Day this Atlantic Monthly article (read belatedly from a backlog of magazines) about Gunpowder on the Rocks caught my eye. I like the idea of setting a drink on fire and then drinking it, as Blackbeard did to impress his pirate crew.
It turns out that this is a practical test of rum to ensure it hasn’t been watered down by a ne’er-do-well hornswoggler, as you can see in this video by experimental archaeologist Jeff Lindow. After watching this, I decided not to try this at home as it would no doubt shiver my timbers. However, if it gets cold enough this winter, I might consider a swig of this gunpowder-infused Man O’War rum. Yo ho ho!