Archive for category pop
Over half of all children have below-average reading skills
Posted by mark in Education, leadership, pop, Uncategorized on June 24, 2019
Yes, you read that right—this statistic was cited by Eugenia Cheng last weekend in her column for the Wall Street Journal on why Averages Aren’t Always What They Seem. In this case, a small number of excellent readers skews the distribution to the right.
But none of this applies to my offspring, them being in the Lake Wobegon region where all the children are above average.
I would never admit it, but deep down I realize that I’ve succumbed to the superiority illusion, aka the Dunning-Kruger effect. As advised in this June 3rd post by Forbes you’d best be careful not to be taken in by individuals who consistently overestimate their competence due to this cognitive bias.
Steve Carell took the superiority illusion to an absurd extreme as the manager Michael Scott in the “The Office” television series. It’s funny unless you are subject to someone like this.
“The knowledge and intelligence that are required to be good at a task are often the same qualities needed to recognize that one is not good at that task—and if one lacks such knowledge and intelligence, one remains ignorant that one is not good at that task.”
— David Dunning, professor of psychology at the University of Michigan
“Stupid people are so stupid they’re unable to grasp the fact that they’re stupid.”
— Letter to Editor of Oroville Mercury Register, 6/23/19
Park in the first open spot or chance one opening much closer?
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on June 6, 2019
Up until a few years ago when going to an event with limited parking, I always took the first opening available. But then one of my buddies told me how he prays for a closer place and one always opens. I thought about that and came to an epiphany that, as a general rule, one may as well try for a parking spot as close as possible to the destination. That’s been working for me ever since.
This strategy is now validated by researchers who evaluated three alternatives: meek, optimistic and prudent. They mathematically disrespect the meek driver parks at the first available spot that is behind the most distant parked car.
“The meek strategy is the most stupid strategy.”
Professor Sidney Redner, Santa Fe Institute—co-author of Simple Parking Strategies, Apr 14, 2019
However, the optimistic driver (like my prayerful friend) who goes for the closest spot, bypassing any gaps before the destination, pays a big penalty if they fail–going all the to the back of the parking line and being late for their even. It is better to be prudent—the middle strategy—by parking at the first gap.
Being methodical and frequently searching for parking at sporting events, I am very appreciative of this analysis. It reinforces my new-found faith (thanks to my friend) that the meek do not inherit the earth, at least not a good place to park your car.
The Economist claims to master forecasts for major men’s golf tourneys
The Masters, the first of four major men’s golf tournaments this year, reaches its midway point today. Many fans are following Tiger Woods to see if he can complete his comeback by adding a 5th Green Jacket to his collection. A gambler in Nevada bet $85,000 on Tiger to win for a $1,190,000 payoff. Check out his current chances at this Economist Advantage in Likelihood Estimate (EAGLE) forecaster. Their algorithm likes Tiger’s chances more than his Official World Golf Rankings would indicate. If you enjoy golf as well as statistics, EAGLE will hit the spot. Check it out!
Recreational reading off by more than 25%
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on February 24, 2019
I’ve noticed that none of my many offspring or their significant others read newspapers (that I know of), while I and many others of my generation keep up with at least one daily publication. This report by BookRiot bears me out—passing along Bureau of Labor Statistics that Americans 15 years and older spent an average of only 16.8 minutes a day reading non-work (or non-school) materials in 2017—down from 22.8 minutes in 2005. According to BookRiot, we fall far behind India, the world leader, India, who came in at nearly over 90 minutes of reading per day. Given their literacy rate of 60% versus the USA’s 99% level,* that is quite impressive.
The New Yorker points out that the average American reader is reading more. However, this is counteracted by fewer people reading anything at all, falling from 26.3 per cent of the population in 2003 to 19.5 per cent in 2016.** That worries me–over 80% of Americans who, evidently, only watch TV. Read these reports and weep.
“People in the U.S. spend 10 times more time watching TV than reading.”
– Sarah Nicolas, BookRiot
**“Why We Don’t Read, Revisited”, Caleb Crain, June 14, 2018
1994 Hot Wheels car wins 2018 Christmas time trials on Corkscrew Crash track
Santa brought my grandson Archer a Mattel Corkscrews Crash track this week. Archer’s been busy ever since running time trials in triplicate on the 48 Hot Wheels cars in his set and computing averages for each group of runs. Considering he’s only in first grade, Archer shows a lot of promise for being an engineer like me, my father and my grandfather (if I do say so myself). However, he needs a bit of work on deciphering how to record times that end in single digits on the hundredths, for example, Archer wrote a time of 1.08 seconds as 1.8—without the zero. I’m working on this. Decimals are tricky for needing to kept in place.
Being overwhelmed with data, I sampled out 12 cars from the dozens that Archer has tested thus far and typed the results into Design-Expert® software’s tools for this one-factor (categorical) comparative experiment. They came out highly significant with very clear divisions between the slowest and fastest cars. (Full disclosure—Archer did not fully randomize the trials, another thing for me to teach as he matures, but I will wait a year or two to try.)
The fastest run—taking less than 1 second to slither through the Corkscrew-was made by a vintage Malaysian entry: the 1994 Mattel Hot Wheels Power Piston Viper Strike. You can see this highlighted in the graph (the bars show least significant differences at 95% confidence).
The trials are continuing at my house now. I am reverting to my ‘Hot Wheels shuffle’ stride when walking about—carefully limiting my step height to avoid stepping on the metal cars. The ones with the pointy fins can be very painful. But it’s all for a great cause. Experimentation!
Dream come true: Homework banned and school days delayed
The Wall Street Journal this week reports that, for the sake of “student wellness”, school districts across the USA are now banning homework [1].
The U.S. Department of Education figures that, on average, high-school students (those without the “get of jail free” card) spend about 8 hours per week on extracurricular assignments. Girls spend an hour more than the norm and boys an hour less, thus there’s a two-hour gender gap on homework. (You be the judge as to what this implies on relative intelligence. I don’t dare!)
Naturally, parents with ambitions for their son or daughter do not favor this trend to relieve academic pressure. Many evidently move their child to private schools that load on several more hours of homework every week. That would be a blow—being yanked away from all your friends at Easy Street High.
It would be worth it if more homework leads to a significantly better education. WSJ suggests that this may not be so for elementary students. That seems sensible. But what about high school? The author of The Battle Over Homework, Duke professor Harris Cooper, says that studies show a positive correlation of homework with achievement [2]. He advises that high-schoolers put in at least 90 minutes a night but beyond 2.5 hours the returns diminish (and any chance of a social life).
Meantime, other school districts, perhaps some that ban homework (that would be double dope!), have moved back their start times to provide more sleep for students. For the heads up, see these Shots from the December 12th NPR Health News on Sleepless No More In Seattle.
I can only say that my quarter of 8 am organic chemistry as a freshman at university did not go well. My notes provided a record of frequent nodding off by my pen trailing off every few lines. That was before I discovered coffee and became addicted to rising early.
Models now running the world
Models will run the world according to this recent op-ed by the Wall Street Journal. This sounds a lot less alarming than a prior essay on “Why Software is Eating the World”. However, one (software) enables the other (modeling).
Models are good in my estimation—beautiful both in mathematical aspects and for their double meaning for those who wear clothes well. For example, the weather-casters often debate during hurricane season whether the American or the European models will prove most accurate. Taking “models” in the fashionable sense, it’s no contest—the winner is American Karly Kloss, who’s Kode with Klossy camps empower girls to code. She is the cross over—a model who can model.
“In the hunt for competitive advantage, model-driven companies will accelerate away from the pack.”
– Steven A. Cohen and Matthew W. Granade
Fireworks that do not go Fourth deserve a resounding fizgig
My word for today is “fizgig”, a type of firework that makes a loud hiss. I consider this an onomatopoeic word, given the “fiz” characterizes the sound.
Residents of Saint Paul, where I grew up, must be fizzing their mayor today after he canceled the city’s fireworks this year due to budget concerns. Boo, hiss!
More commonly, fireworks are frowned upon due to safety concerns. For example, a Florida television station broadcast a warning yesterday that Independence Day revelers should be careful not to “be a statistic” by shooting off fireworks. I don’t get this. Isn’t being a statistic a good thing?
An enterprising fireworks vendor turned the statistics around in a very creative way by touting a long-term trend toward fewer injuries per pound of pyrotechnics—citing a decrease of more than 50% since 1994. I find this fellows numerical and sentimental arguments in favor of fireworks very compelling: Check it out here.
“It ought to be solemnized with Pomp and Parade, with Shews, Games, Sports, Guns, Bells, Bonfires and Illuminations from one End of this Continent to the other from this Time forward forever more.”
– John Adams, July 3, 1776
Are you one of the elite 10% who can work out this test of logic?
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on May 2, 2018
Four cards are laid out before you, each with a letter on one side and a number on the other. You see E, 2, 5 and F. Which cards should you turn over that will prove the following rule: If there is an E on one side, the number on the other side must be a 5? See the answer by Manil Suri, Professor at University of Maryland, in this April 15 New York Times article that asks “Does Math Make You Smarter?”.
As to whether math really does make you smarter, the answer remains unclear. However, those who do well with numbers make far more money. That is not surprising, but the multiplier may be. See this U.S. News report (or not if you failed the test above) for the statistics.
High-tech brain-wave devices that make you very sleepy, plus other innovations now being tested at experimental hotels
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on April 13, 2018
While watching CBS News the morning of March 26, this report on “smart hotels” caught my eye—not so much for concerns about privacy, but more due to knowing these came by very clever experimentation by Marriot and other leading innkeepers. Perhaps not purely by coincidence, just a week before being featured in this broadcast, Marriot posted a job opening for the Manager of Digital Analytics. In similar postings by them over the past several years I see the hotel seeking someone able to “understand and apply best practices for designing statistical experiments.”
The funny thing is that I was once a subject for a factorial design by Marriott. This happened in the early 1980s during their development of the Courtyard. For a discount off my bill (I think $20—a fair amount of money back then), I got sent from room to room with various combinations and permutations of desks, chairs, bathroom layouts, etc.—so many that I became a bit bewildered trying to sort out what really hit the spot for me as a business traveler. Anyways, being into designed experiments, I enjoyed being a very small part (one data point!) of this Marriott success story in product development.
Nowadays Marriott tests their new concepts at the M Beta hotel in Charlotte seen here. Buttons throughout the property register resident’s reactions and impressions. Read more about these feedback devices and check out photos of recent innovations in this report by Innovation Leader.
My favorite hotelier, Hilton, also experiments on their rooms and services as you can see in this article by USA Today. At their Innovation Gallery in northern Virginia Hilton you can strap on a VR device and take a tour of a guestrooms of the future. Whoohoo!
As the CBS report noted, some of the new features coming at these high-tech hotels do create queasiness for them being so intrusive on one’s personal space. For example, I will take a pass on Hilton’s NuCalm device (not at all related to what’s pictured), which purportedly sends its wearers into 20 minutes of dozing that feels like three hours of deep sleep, thus evaporating stress and promoting utter relaxation. Leave my brain be, please!