Archive for category pop
World’s longest pedestrian suspension bridge
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on May 27, 2016
While taking the scenic route back to Munich from Mad King Ludwig’s fairy-tale Neuschwanstein Castle Neuschwanstein Castle, I looked up and saw this flimsy strand several hundred feet overhead just over the Austrian border. My daughter and her husband insisted on hiking up to walk across it. Being a sucker for a dare, I could not resist joining them. (My wife wisely stayed behind.) It was awesome being up so high and swaying in the wind on the 1,322 foot journey each way above the chasm.
The Tibetan-style footbridge is called the Highline179 after the tourist route that winds through this part of the Tyrol. It supposedly can hold up to 500 people. However, I would not like to do a confirmatory test of this specification. By the way, the ruins in the background are Fort Claudia–an outpost of Ehrenberg Castle.
If you are not afraid of heights, check out this video made during construction of Highline179.
Lottomania revving up with Powerball pot approaching a half billion dollars
Despite odds of only 1 in nearly 300 million for a win, Americans are lining up to buy tickets for a chance at the ninth largest jackpot in U.S. history. Why bother? Evidently most of us, e.g., my wife,* suffer from “availability bias”. This occurs due to the diabolical way that lottery officials publicize winners, which when magnified by the media, makes is seem that these windfalls are commonplace.
Another fallacy, which tricks analytical types like me, is assuming that expected value becomes positive when the jackpot builds. That is, for every $1 invested, more than that is likely to be returned, at least on average. The flaw in this calculation is that lottomaniacs swarm on the big pots, thus making it very likely that the payoff must then be shared among multiple winners. For details, follow this thread on XKCD’s forum.
*I asked her “If you won the lottery, would you still love me?’” and she said: “Of course I would. I’d miss you, but I’d still love you.” (Credit goes Irish comedian Frank Carson for this witty comeback.)
Men who have children make more money and live longer–correlation or causation?
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on April 29, 2016
Hey guys, if you want to make more money and live longer, have kids. Anyways that seems to be the gist of two studies reported this month, at least from my perspective as a father of five. Here is the scoop:
- “Men in the top 1 percent distribution level live about 15 years longer than men in the bottom 1 percent on the income distribution in the United States.” – Raj Chetty, professor of economics at Stanford University, quoted in this report by NPR on an article in The Journal of American Medical Association on “The Association Between Income and Life Expectancy in the United States, 2001-2014” he lead-authored.
- Working fathers enjoy 21% ‘wage bonus’ over childless colleagues according to a study by United Kingdom’s Trades Union Congress reported here
Before you run off madly making babies, that correlation may not be causation. For example, as reported in this expose by Slate, statistics indicate that eating ice cream turns people into killers. Could that really be the scoop?
A Data Sherlock’s best friend: IBM’s Watson
According to this report last week by eWeek, more than 1 million users have registered for IBM’s Watson Analytics service since it launched a little over 1 year ago. Evidently this artificially intelligent (AI) statistician-in-a-box will enable “citizen data scientists” to decipher patterns in the massive pile of information that now flow in from all quarters. Current clients featuring by eWeek range from multinational law firm using it to identify new areas of practice to a UK a care provider looking for factors that improve worker safety. IBM itself now operates an enterprise called Watson Health that deciphers medical imagery, and they bought the digital assets of the Weather Company to help businesses defend themselves against Mother Nature.*
Unfortunately for one of the early adopters of Watson—the MD Anderson Cancer Center at University of Texas (UT)—AI’s current IQ still falls far short of initial hopes.
“On Jeopardy! [Where Watson made its name 5 years ago by defeating the human champions] there’s a right answer to the question [actually the right question for the answer], but, in the medical world, there are often just informed decisions.”
— Lynda Chin, chief innovation officer for health affairs, UT
So it seems that, for the moment, at least, human statistical Sherlocks will not be replaced by AI’s overseen by amateurs at sleuthing out the culprits for cancer or other highly prized information. However, Watson might be as capable an assistant as ‘his’ literary namesake.
*1/6/16 Financial Times “Big Read” on “Artificial Intelligence”, p 5 sidebar.
Too many dogs at farmers markets?
Today’s “Gray Matter” column in the New York Times provides an exceptionally well-balanced report that casts doubt on the healthiness of food from farmers markets—read it here. What caught my eye is how the author, a professor at University of Minnesota (my alma mater), lays out a number of positive correlations (being careful not to conclude causation) between farmers markets and various food-borne illnesses, including one attributed to the ‘droppings’ from dogs and the like. But the thing I most admire is him admitting to “a number of dogs that did not bark”, i.e., a number of outbreaks that did not show a statistically significant connection to farmers markets.
This suggestion of possible health issues with farmers markets is heavily hedged—very possibly it will not be borne out by subsequent research. Nevertheless it would only be prudent to thoroughly wash locally grown and sold produce.
Sine illusion makes peaks and valleys on graphs look overly variable
An article in the latest Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics (JCGS, Vol 24, Num 4, Dec 2015, p1170)) alerted me to a fascinating misperception called the “sine illusion” that causes misinterpretation of trends in variability. See it nicely illustrated here by vision researcher Micheal Bach. The JGCS, Susan VanderPlas and Heike Hofmann, detail “Signs of Sine Illusion—Why We Need to Care” and provide methods to counteract its misleading effects.
If you see a scatter plot that goes up and down with seemingly large scatter at the bends, get out a ruler to get the true perspective. That is my take home message for those like me who like to be accurate in their assessments of data.
“The illusion is explained in terms of a perceptual compromise between the vertical extent and the greater overall dimensions of the section at the turn of the sine-wave figure.”
– RH Day and EJ Stecher, “Sine of an illusion,” Perception, 20; 1991, 49–55.
College textbooks up over 1000 percent since ’77
Bernie Sanders say it’s time to make college tuition free. That would really be radical. A more attainable goal is to make textbooks more affordable. According to an NBC story posted just prior to the current school year, college textbook prices have risen 1,041 percent since 1977, now amounting to over $1200 per student per year. My high school classmate Mark Perry, Professor of Economics at University of Michigan, warns that:
“College textbook prices are increasing way more than parents’ ability to pay for them.”
This tide of expenses for books has been slowed somewhat by the advent of rentals, e.g., $34 for one semester versus $157 to buy Montgomery’s 8th Edition of Design and Analysis of Experiments.
Another way to save that no one dreamed of in ’77 is by buying an e-textbook—Montgomery’s DAOE book costing only $67 in this format.
However, the big breakthrough in reducing the cost of college comes from the University of Minnesota’s Open Textbook Network (OTN), which began offering textbooks for free three years ago. Students over this period saved an estimated 1.5 million dollars, primarily over the past year.*
Professor Gary Oehlert of U Mn School of Statistics—a long-time advisor to Stat-Ease and author of A First Course in Design and Analysis of Experiments**—provides this endorsement of this worthy initiative by my alma mater: “There are several other similar open textbook depositories (OpenStax, etc), but OTN was one of the first to have reviews for the books as well as perhaps being the only one to have a support model for obtaining serious reviews of the books. It also has a broader range of texts than one might anticipate, with math books ranging from high school level through some fairly advanced topics.”
Powerful forces from for-profit publishers and authors who prefer being paid for their hard labor will naturally restrict the spread of free books. Even so, the OTN will certainly put a damper on the rampant inflation of the cost of texts. That will be a big relief for hard-pressed students and their parents.
*Source: “One for the Books”, Minnesota Alumni magazine, Winter 2016, p.12.
**Freely available here under Creative Commons license
Merry DXmas!
Design-Expert software produced this graphic with some wizardry by our Consultant Wayne Adams. Amazing!
Happy holidays!
Technology advanced beyond any hope for healthy curiosity
I am watching the Syfy’s series “Childhood’s End” this week. It is based on a science fiction novel by British author Arthur C. Clarke, one of my favorites growing up. One of the main characters is a very bright boy who at the end of the premier episode last night becomes an astrophysicist, despite this scientific profession being made entirely superfluous by the advanced technology of the alien Overlords.
This morning Robert Scherrer, the chairman of the department of physics and astronomy at Vanderbilt University, lamented in an editorial* for Wall Street Journal that children no longer have any reason to be interested in science, mainly because most of our household gadgets fall into the category of magic—alluding to Clarke’s observation that “any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”
“The world’s now placid, featureless, and culturally dead: nothing really new has been created since the Overlords came. The reason’s obvious. There’s nothing left to struggle for, and there are too many distractions and entertainments.”
― Arthur C. Clarke, Childhood’s End
Are you a super-recognizer?
Every now and then I see someone in an airport or other public place who looks very familiar. Now and then I’ve actually walked up to someone and greeted them by name and gotten a blank, off-putting look in return. That is embarrassing! However, I feel vindicated today after taking this 5 minute web test for facial recognition and passing it with a grade (11 out of 15) that makes me a potential “super recognizer.” 🙂 The researchers at University of Greenwich asked me to follow up by taking a 45 minute test to verify my superior abilities, but I am going to quit while I’m ahead.
If you flunk this facial recognition test, you suffer from “prosopagnosia”—that would not be good because it indicates a poorly developed “fusiform” in the back of your brain. 🙁
For those who do qualify in the UG web quiz and take the longer test, the payoff could be a job with the crack team of super-recognizers at Scotland Yard. Read about them in this fascinating National Geographic post with the Gory Details on “Face Finding Superpower for Fighting Crime”.