Archive for category Uncategorized
Colors to dye for
Posted by mark in food science, Uncategorized on December 4, 2024
I grew up in the golden age for kids’ cereals, first with Trix from General Mills—introduced in 1954 in three colors: raspberry red, orangey orange and lemony yellow (now also wildberry blue, grapity purple and watermelon), followed in 1963 with Froot Loops from Kellog—also in red, orange and yellow—Toucan Sam style (now also green, blue and purple). Back then nobody worried much about how these manufacturers colored their cereals—artificially or otherwise. However, nowadays a consensus has built up about a “rainbow of risks” caused by synthetic food dyes. Political pressure across the spectrum from Gavin Newsome to Robert F Kennedy, Jr continues to build for banning these presumably harmful additives.
This sets the stage for some interesting history by American Heritage magazine on letting the food industry “poison” us as RFK, Jr puts it. Their Senior Editor Bruce Watson reported in the November/December issue how “many of our first food-safety laws arose after healthy young volunteers became sick when they tried commercial foods containing toxic additives.” These daredevils comprised “The Poison Squad” created in 1902 by Harvey Wiley Washington—who became known as the “Father of the Pure Food and Drugs Act” when it became law in 1906.
“NONE BUT THE BRAVE CAN EAT THE FARE.”
– Sign posted outside the Department of Agriculture building to enlist human ‘guinea pigs’
As historian Deborah Blum noted in her book The Poison Squad: One Chemist’s Single-Minded Crusade for Food Safety at the Turn of the Twentieth Century Washington deserves credit for “one of the most significant experiments in the 20th century.” For example, just prior to his crusading work, hundreds or perhaps thousands of children died from milk “embalmed” with formaldehyde.
Not to lessen the current concern over artificial dyes, we can be thankful for the relative safety of our food compared to the fare in the early 1900s. But I do not advocate going back to the days when potential poisons were tested on human subjects. Though I suppose there’s worse things than being tasked with eating large quantities of Trix and Froot Loops, provided, of course, that the milk is not embalmed. ; )
Hoping to cell-abrate meat substitutes before I die
Posted by mark in food science, Uncategorized on October 14, 2024
As a consultant on statistical design and analysis of experiments, I’ve been working with many leading-edge developers of cell-based meats (and fish). I am a carnivore—me loving a juicy burger, tender pulled pork, medium-rare steak or barbecued chicken. However, I’d happily switch to lab-grown protein once it passes a properly designed double-blind taste test. This will be a huge breakthrough by not killing animals and greatly reducing greenhouse gases—including “enteric fermentation” (nice way of referring to cow farts, ha ha).
Some experts do not foresee this happening in our lifetime according to this report last February by CBC. But after reading this cover story posted yesterday by Chemical & Engineering News on recent developments on lab-grown meats, I am more optimistic.
There is a fly in the food, so to speak, though: I cannot eat lab-grown meat while wintering in my Florida home—it’s been banned per this May 1 press release from Governor DeSantis. No fair!
“Today, Florida is fighting back against the global elite’s plan to force the world to eat meat grown in a petri dish or bugs to achieve their authoritarian goals.”
– Governor Ron DeSantis
By the way, I do agree with the Governor on one thing by not being a big fan of eating bugs. On the other hand, I applaud a Stat-Ease client from Bulgaria—Nasekomo (meaning ‘‘insect’’)—for developing a high-protein chicken feed made from soldier flies. I helped one of their researchers on her experimentation after first being assured that the EU approves the use of their product only for animals, not humans. She told me that chickens who eat the fly-based food tend to be less aggressive and healthier. Sounds good to me: Cock-a-doodle-do!
What not to wear to a dinner hosted by mosquitos
Posted by mark in Nature, Uncategorized on August 2, 2024
Yesterday I stopped by Minnesota’s Metropolitan Mosquito Control District (MMCD) booth at our local county fair. They display live mosquito larvae swimming in a shallow pan of water. Visitors can pipette them on to a slide and view them with a microscope. Fascinating!
Thanks to the mosquito control services by MMCD (and/or developments reducing habitat) I’ve seen a dramatic decrease in these pests since moving into my home in Stillwater almost 30 years ago. However, there were plenty of ‘skeeters at the Anderson family get-together up north at Pine Terrace Resort last month. While packing for our getaway, my wife advised that to be less attractive to these flying insects I bring white or lightly colored clothes and none with any reds. Being a professional skeptic of such assertions, I immediately looked for any science to support her advice. As usual, she was right, as you can see in this 2022 publication by Nature on The olfactory gating of visual preferences to human skin and visible spectra in mosquitoes.
If you are put off by too much information, watch this LIVENOW interview of co-author Jeffrey A. Riffell—a biology professor at the University of Washington, Seattle. I like his heads-up that mosquitos learn not to bite people swatting them away and go for easier prey. In other words, if you are going for a hike in the woods, bring along someone who would rather get bitten up than look like a city slicker. Then diligently swat all mosquitos over to your trail-mate—better to look like a fool than be bitten-upped cool.
PS: I am a big fan of DEET repellants for deterring mosquitos and, equally important, ticks. I also wear a cap treated with permethrin, which is a real game changer as advised by Hiking Thru Life. Of course, in areas where mosquitos gather in visible clouds, covering up completely, starting with a head net, is the only way to go. Given the huge increase in mosquito-borne and tick-borne diseases in the United States and elsewhere, it’s best to “fight the bite”.
Design of experiments (DOE): Secret weapon for model rocketry
Posted by mark in science, Uncategorized on June 27, 2024
Attracted by its focus on model rockets, I took a summer class on physics at Macalester College in my early teens. What a blast—literally! I really enjoyed learning about force, mass, acceleration and all the other aspects underlying aerospace. (Keep in mind this being the height of the 1960s race to the Moon.) But the best part was building a scale model of the Saturn V featuring multiple solid propellant motors and a parachute recovery system. For the grand finale of our class, we successfully launched our rocket. The parachute did deploy. However, our ship drifted over Saint Paul’s magnificent urban forest (soon to be decimated by Dutch elm disease) and got hopelessly hung up 100 feet overhead.
These great memories from my youth came back to me earlier this year when asked for advice on validating the OpenRocket simulator. The question came in from a mentor using Stat-Ease® 360 software on a low-cost educator license to support a high-school rocket club achieve the American Rocketry Challenge goals for altitude and flight duration. I happily deferred this request for stat help to my colleague Joe—a physics PhD who plays a dual role providing statistical advice and programming. Without getting into the details (after all, this is rocket science!), suffice it to say that, yes, our DOE software does provide “the right stuff.”
By the way, just last week a NASA sounding rocket carrying student experiments reached an altitude of 70 miles. See the video for the launch. (I advanced it to the countdown. After the blast off, move on. That is the only exciting bit.)
What I find most amazing is that the nose cone on this rocket can carry up to 80 plastic cubes as payload. These accommodate experiments by 11-18 year old students. Check out this Cubes in Space STEM program. Page down to the BREAKING NEWS about an important discovery made by a group of elementary students from Ottawa. I recommend you watch the CTV video—very impressive to hear from such science-savvy grade-schoolers. They will go far!
A solution for saving migrating birds from disorienting light pollution
Posted by mark in Education, Nature, science, Uncategorized on May 3, 2024
My grandson Archer and his class of sixth graders at Stillwater Middle School advanced to last week’s national Solve for Tomorrow competition in Washington, DC–an amazing accomplishment at their age. The event, sponsored by Samsung, empowers students in grades 6–12 to leverage the power of STEM (science, technology, engineering and math) to create innovative solutions addressing critical issues in their local communities.
Archer and his classmates focused their attention on reducing the impact of light on bird migration patterns in the St. Croix Valley. They developed a very inventive plan that featured bioluminescence; sensors to reduce unnecessary light and a flower-petaled, controllable cover for directing streetlights downward.
Being one of just 10 schools across the country to be named national finalists, they earn $50,000 in Samsung technology and supplies for their classroom. To top it off, Archer and his classmates won an additional $10,000 by winning the Community Choice award based on a popular vote.
I expect Archer and all will go far by their STEM power. Hopefully, the birds will also continue to go far by being better protected from light pollution along their way.
Weather Tiger predicts a “hyperactive” hurricane season
Posted by mark in Uncategorized on April 3, 2024
Owning a second home In Venice, Florida just a few blocks from the Gulf is great for me and my wife Karen to dodge winter (she really, really hates the cold!). However, there’s always a catch to the good things in life: From June 1 through Nov. 30 our snow haven stands in harm’s way of hurricanes.
Hurricane Ian created quite a scare in September of 2022 before veering south just before landfall. Whew! Last year our closest call came from Idalia in late August—it hitting hard at Category 3 in the Big Bend region of Florida.
This year could be a doozy according to the Weather Tiger, who provides “expert analysis of Florida hurricane threats, with a twist of dad humor” (my kind of guy!). He predicts a “75% chance of hyperactive hurricane season with likely US landfalls.”
“Our model boldly suggests a 10% to 15% chance that 2024 bests 1933’s record for the most intense season, though laying firm probabilities on outliers is a statistical mug’s game.”
– WeatherTiger President and Chief Meteorologist Ryan Truchelut, 3/28 Sarasota Herald
Accuweather’s forecast for the 2024 hurricane season is even more hyperbolic—describing it as “explosive” and “super-charged” and warning that “forecasters may even run out of names for storms amid a frenzy of tropical systems.” Oh, my!
Good thing I just did an extensive remodel to bolster our 1960 cinder block home with a new roof, high impact windows, flood vents, etc. Bring it on!
On second thought…do not.
Scroll sawers put blades to the statistical test by cutting out ducks
Posted by mark in Uncategorized on March 3, 2024
Years ago I helped Quality Assurance Manager John Engler solve a tricky issue at Robinson Rubber via design of experiments (DOE). He contacted me last fall to help him apply DOE to a nagging question about scroll sawing: Does it pay to buy pricier blades?
We worked together to design a simple-comparative randomized-block experiment on 10 competitive blades. John enlisted 20 fellow hobbyists in his NorthStar Scrollers club to cut out a duck from pine (see pattern below) using the selected blades (such as the one taped on the board) in a random order.
They then rated the results on a 1 to 9 scale—higher the better—for speed of cut, blade jumpiness, fuzzies (undesirable!), edge smoothness, burns and line following.
The blades differed significantly by all attributes at p < 0.0001 other than the line following (p = 0.3419). For the most critical measure—speed of cut, blades 3, 8 and 9 stood above all others on average.
The power of doing 21 replicates—widely spread as indicated by the red dots—and, furthermore, blocking out the scroller-to-scroller differences, is seen by the narrowness of the least significant differences (based on a p of 0.05).
Accounting for all the attributes via Stat-Ease software’s multiple response optimization these three blades held up overall with number 3 being the winner by costing less than the other two.
After I reported my findings to the group, John laid out a number of mitigating factors:
- Experience of the scroll sawers
- Type of wood, e.g., something a lot harder
- The life of the blades (important to consider for the cost)
But all-in-all, this planned experiment proved to be a big hit with the NorthStar Scroller hobbyists. What impressed me was their depth of knowledge on scroll-saw blades and why we observed such significant differences due to the patterns and orientation of their teeth, etc. I was also struck by how some individuals could tell right away which blades worked best—even before seeing the entire set of data. This reinforces my feeling that laying out and analyzing experiments works best by combining the know-how of a DOE expert (like me) with subject matter experts (not me in this case—far from it!).
“This went much better for me than I thought it might and I learned some things about blades along the way. This was fun!”
–Helen (a NorthStar Scroller blade-tester)
Chance discovery on random walk in Utrecht
Posted by mark in science, Uncategorized on December 11, 2023
Last week I taught a class on design of experiments to a biotech company in Leiden, Netherlands. Afterwards I spent a few days in Utrecht with some friends from Germany. Imagine my excitement (nerd alert!) when on my first walk from our hotel to the city center just a few hundred feet down the sidewalk I encountered this mural featuring a differential equation.
Not being a physicist, I did not immediately grasp the formula’s importance, nor the clue provided by the fellow high-stepping down a street. It turns out this fellow is a drunk whose walk has become random. The mural, as explained by Utrecht University, pays homage to their famous professor Leonard Ornstein who, in the early 1900s along with another physicist—George Uhlenbeck—developed an important variant of the “random walk”—a term introduced by pioneering statistician Karl Pearson. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is used to derive models from “big” financial data, including inflation rates, commodity prices and stock values.
I did not expect to gain an education on a vacation expedition.
Very cool!
PS: I thought about asking my colleague Martin Bezener, a PhD statistician, for his opinion on the chances of coming across something so relevant to our mission at Stat-Ease while on a random walk. But I will not bother, because I already know what he would say: “One-hundred percent: It already happened”.
Data detectives keep science honest
Posted by mark in science, Uncategorized on October 6, 2023
An article in Wall Street Journal last week* drew my attention to a growing number of scientists who moonlight as data detectives sleuthing out fraudulent studies. Thanks to their work the number of faulty papers retracted increased from 119 in 2002 to 5,500 last year. These statistics come from Retraction Watch who provide a better, graphical, perspective on the increase based on percent retractions per annual science and engineering (SE) publication–not nearly as dramatic given the explosion in publications over the last 20 years, but still very alarming.
“If you take the sleuths out of the equation it’s very difficult to see how most of these retractions would have happened.”
Ivan Oransky, co-founder of Data Colada –a blog dedicated to investigative analysis and replication of academic research.
Coincidentally, I just received this new cartoon from Professor Nadeem Irfan Bukhari. (See my all-time favorite from him in the April 27, 2007 StatsMadeEasy blog Cartoon quantifies commitment issue.)
It depicts statistics as the proverbial camel allowed to put its nose in the tent occupied by science disciplines until it become completely entrenched.
Thank goodness for scientists like Nadeem who embrace statistical tools for design and analysis of experiments. And kudos to those who guard against faulty or outright fraudulent scientific publications.
*The Band of Debunkers Busting Bad Scientists, Nidhi Subbaraman, 9/24/23
Hurricane season off to a hot start with great uncertainty ahead
Posted by mark in Nature, Uncategorized, Weather on June 30, 2023
After narrowly dodging Ian’s devastating blow last fall—predicted the day before landfall to hit just a few blocks from my southwest Florida winter home, I am keeping a close watch on this year’s storms.
Just prior to 2024 season on June 1, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted it would be near normal. The NOAA forecasters figure on the winds from the Pacific’s El Nino counteracting the storm inducing temperatures in the Atlantic.
A clash of the titans lies ahead as developing El Niño and notable warmth in the Tropical Atlantic go toe-to-toe.
Ryan Truchelut—the Weather Tiger’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for May 2023
The Weather Tiger (quoted above) calculated Florida landfall odds this year at slightly above 50/50 for at least 1 hurricane. That was before Tropical Storm Cindy formed behind Tropical Storm Bret in June, creating the first case of two storms in the tropical Atlantic in June since record keeping began in 1851–an alarmingly aggressive start to the season.
Based on these forecasts and the history of USA hurricanes, it seems certain to me that, before 2023 is over, our home will come into harm’s way. Therefore, I keep a close watch on NOAA’s graphical forecasts that display cones showing the probable track of the center of every tropical cyclone. These cones create a great deal of consternation and confusion due to difficulties comprehending probabilities, overly high expectations in the accuracy and precision of forecasting models, and other issues.
While admiring the continuing advancements in meteorology, including this year’s extension to 7 days for hurricane forecasts, I believe (but only half seriously) that if a weather forecast one-day ahead puts me at the bullseye of an oncoming storm, then it will be a miss. This worked for Hurricane Ian. But to hedge my bets, I greatly reinforced our home over the winter to resist wind, rain and flooding—bringing it all up to current hurricane codes and beyond.
Best be safe!