Archive for category Uncategorized
Jittery gauges making people crazy on election night
Posted by mark in Graphics, Uncategorized on November 15, 2016
Early last Tuesday evening I went to the New York Times elections website to check on the Presidential race. It had Clinton favored, but not by much—just a bit over 50% at the time, with the needle wavering alarmingly (by my reckoning) towards the side of Trump. A few hours later I was shocked to see it at a plus 70% for Trump. By the time I retired for the night the Times had him at near 100%, which, of course turned out to be the case, to my surprise and many others, even President Elect Trump himself, I suspect.
Being a chemical engineer, I like the jittery gauge display—it actually is less unsettling for me than a needle that is fixed (which usually happened only when a measuring instrument failed). Even more important, from my perspective as an aficionado of statistics, is the way this dynamic graphic expressed uncertainty—becoming less jittery as the night went on and returns came in. However, the fluctuating probabilities freaked out a lot of viewers, leading to this explanation by NYT as to Why we used jittery gauges.
For an unbiased, mainly positive, review of this controversial graphical approach by the Times to report election results see this Visualizing Data blog.
“Negativity expressed towards the jitter was a visceral reaction to the anguish caused by the increasing uncertainty of the outcome, heightened by the shocking twist in events during the night, [but] I found it an utterly compelling visual aid.”
— Andy Kirk, author of Visualizing Data
P.S. Here’s a new word that I picked up while researching this blog: “skeuomorphism”, meaning the designing of graphics to resemble real world counterparts, for example, Apple Watch’s clock-like interface. Evidently battles have been raging for years in the tech world over using this approach versus flat, minimalist, designs. I had no idea!
Scary statistics about Halloween
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on October 27, 2016
I am torn whether it will be scarier to dress up as the nightmarish Freddie Krueger from Elm Street or as a statistics instructor. Which would you rather be locked in a windowless room with? Hmmm… best you not answer that.
Anyways, here are some frightful facts about the upcoming holiday reported in yesterday’s USA Today:
- 171 million Americans plan to partake in Halloween festivities. Crazy!
- On average, women will pay double for “non-sexy” Halloween costumes. The “sexy” costumes cost on average around $30, while the demure ones (boo!) go for near $60.
- Witch and pirate are the first two costumes of choice, followed by Trump and Clinton. Hmmm… is this a case of perfectly opposite correlation?
Happy Halloween!
Obscurity does not equal profundity
Posted by mark in Uncategorized on October 9, 2016
In 1989 I attended a debate where George Box defended the standard approach for design of experiments against the Taguchi method. In summary he simply put up a mathematical equation on three scraps of transparencies that projected “Obscurity” “not equal to” “Profundity”. This created a memorable uproar from the Taguchi disciples in the audience.”
I am reminded of this upon the news that the winner of the 2016 Ig Nobel Peace Prize is this paper by University of Waterloo Ph.D. psychology candidate Gordon Penny et al On the reception and detection of pseudo-profound bullshit. This treatise sorts out what is serious bullshit versus simply nonsense or harmless mundanity. It provides this example of pseudo profundity from an actual tweet sent by a well-known New Age healer and advocate of alternative medicine:
Attention and intention are the mechanics of manifestation.
Evidently many people are not only prone to eating up stuff like this but they also lack to ability to sniff it out. The Waterloo researchers tested a large number (280) undergrads on a Bullshit Receptivity (BSR) scale. They then completed several follow up studies, going all out to shovel the BSR. ; )
It composts down to bullshit not only being more ubiquitous than ever before (being a big part of internet) but also increasingly popular. The authors’ hope by their study to reduce BSR and thereby the generation of it due to this improved detection of obscure pseudo profundities. That would be good!
Studies on the intelligence of cats versus dogs and their owners
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on July 20, 2016
It is a demonstrable fact that dogs know calculus as reported here by The Mathematical Association of America. On the other hand, everyone knows that cats, while obviously intelligent, are too lazy to learn any tricks like all dogs do, at least until they become too old. Therefore, for these two reasons, dogs must be smarter than cats by my reckoning.
But now comes news that felines fathom physics, or at least they naturally grasp the principles of gravity. This conclusion comes from an ingenious experiment on thirty cats done by Japanese researchers. The creatures were found to be inordinately curious about magnetic balls that did not fall out of an overturned metal container. For more details, see this recap by phys.org.
Then to make matters worse for dog lovers like myself, a recent study by a Wisconsin researcher indicates that cat owners are smarter than dog owners. Read it here in Psychology Today and whimper. If it’s any consolation, the study shows that dog people are less neurotic.
“The greatest pleasure of a dog is that you may make a fool of yourself with him, and not only will he not scold you, but he will make a fool of himself, too.”
― Samuel Butler
Stand up now and then while working at your desk and do half again more than sitting the whole time
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on June 19, 2016
According to this Wall Street Journal report, call-center workers given “stand-capable” desks were 46% more productive than their peers who remained sitting. This astounding improvement in output is attributed to the benefits of moving around.
“We hope this work will show companies that although there might be some costs involved in providing stand-capable workstations, increased employee productivity over time will more than offset these initial expenses.”
-Mark Benden, Director of the Texas A&M Ergonomics Center
P.S. It seems to me from what I gather off the internet that sitting or standing all day at work may not be as healthy as varying positions, e.g., see this essay from 538 blog.
World’s longest pedestrian suspension bridge
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on May 27, 2016
While taking the scenic route back to Munich from Mad King Ludwig’s fairy-tale Neuschwanstein Castle Neuschwanstein Castle, I looked up and saw this flimsy strand several hundred feet overhead just over the Austrian border. My daughter and her husband insisted on hiking up to walk across it. Being a sucker for a dare, I could not resist joining them. (My wife wisely stayed behind.) It was awesome being up so high and swaying in the wind on the 1,322 foot journey each way above the chasm.
The Tibetan-style footbridge is called the Highline179 after the tourist route that winds through this part of the Tyrol. It supposedly can hold up to 500 people. However, I would not like to do a confirmatory test of this specification. By the way, the ruins in the background are Fort Claudia–an outpost of Ehrenberg Castle.
If you are not afraid of heights, check out this video made during construction of Highline179.
Men who have children make more money and live longer–correlation or causation?
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on April 29, 2016
Hey guys, if you want to make more money and live longer, have kids. Anyways that seems to be the gist of two studies reported this month, at least from my perspective as a father of five. Here is the scoop:
- “Men in the top 1 percent distribution level live about 15 years longer than men in the bottom 1 percent on the income distribution in the United States.” – Raj Chetty, professor of economics at Stanford University, quoted in this report by NPR on an article in The Journal of American Medical Association on “The Association Between Income and Life Expectancy in the United States, 2001-2014” he lead-authored.
- Working fathers enjoy 21% ‘wage bonus’ over childless colleagues according to a study by United Kingdom’s Trades Union Congress reported here
Before you run off madly making babies, that correlation may not be causation. For example, as reported in this expose by Slate, statistics indicate that eating ice cream turns people into killers. Could that really be the scoop?
A knotty problem—how to keep track of stuff without computers or even pen and paper
Posted by mark in history, Uncategorized on January 3, 2016
The New York Times reports today on the recent discovery of several knotted string records, called khipus, that ancient Incas used to record things such as the colorful potatoes I photographed at a Peruvian market. From what I saw on my travels there—see this blog on Incan agriculture experiments, a great deal of food must have been produced and stored.
Based on this Times picture I suspect these “mops that have seen better days”, as George Gheverghese Joseph, a mathematics historian at the University of Manchester, U.K., put it, must be a bit easier to untangle than Christmas lights. But then there remains the problem of deciphering them.
Thus far researchers have picked up on mathematical aspects of the khipus. However, the latest trove of colored strings provides a chance at figuring out the Incan scheme for identifying what was being counted. Here is where database capability and statistical methodology comes in handy.
I amazes me how all of the technology we now have at our disposable is challenged by methods developed 600 or so years ago. Hats off to Incan ‘thinken!
“Many now think that although khipu probably began as accounting tools, they had evolved into a writing system—a kind of three-dimensional binary code, unlike any other on Earth—by the time the Spanish arrived.”
— Cracking the Khipu Code Science magazine.
Sleep well or get fat
Posted by mark in Uncategorized, Wellness on November 10, 2015
It’s not often I see a study that focuses on variability but that is what drives this recent New York Times story detailing how “Poor Sleep May Spur College Weight Gain.” Sleep for Science Lab researchers kept track of how 132 first-year students at Brown University slept over a nine week period, during which more than half of them gained nearly six pounds. The increase in weight comes as no surprise (one subject gained 18 pounds!) but this correlating to deviations in sleeping times is provocative. Whether this is causal, or just an offshoot of other upsets in lifestyle that come when students break loose from their parents, remains to be seen in controlled experiment.
Meanwhile, the National Sleep Foundation (NSF) widened ranges earlier this year (2/2/15) in these new recommendations in hours per day broken down by age:
- Newborns (0-3 months): 14-17 (previously 12-18)
- Infants (4-11 months): 12-15 hours (14-15)
- Toddlers (1-2 years): 11-14 hours (12-14)
- Preschoolers (3-5): 10-13 hours (11-13)
- School age children (6-13): 9-11 hours (10-11)
- Teenagers (14-17): 8-10 hours (8.5-9.5)
- Younger adults (18-25): 7-9 hours (new age category)
- Adults (26-64): 7-9 hours (no change)
- Older adults (65+): 7-8 hours (new age category)
My interpretation of all this is to get your teens to follow a fairly regular schedule for sleep (good for those of all ages, I feel sure), but don’t worry too much about the exact amount, provided it falls within the recommended guidelines of NSF.
P.S. In this report published November 4 in Sleep Review, Russell Foster, professor of circadian neuroscience at Oxford, recommends you brush your teeth in the dark to ensure a good sleep. That gives me a bright idea: glow in the dark toothpaste! 🙂
Breaking free of standard practices that no longer make sense
Posted by mark in Consumer behavior, Uncategorized on October 20, 2015
Building off my previous blog on “Why no one wants to monkey around with how things have always been done” I am passing along an insightful anecdote by David Morganstein, President of the American Statistical Association, about his wife’s standard practice to slice a quarter inch off of every ham and toss it in the trash. Read this amazing story and others like it in “The Slice of Ham, How Do You Know?”.
Most of our assumptions have outlived their uselessness.
– Marshall McLuhan, famed for predicting the World Wide Web almost thirty years before it was invented.