Archive for category Wellness
Swedish sleep researchers torture subjects with math problems
This is alarming news, literally: Researchers from Stockholm University discovered via studies involving over 1700 subjects* that over two-thirds of them, especially younger individuals, habitually hit the snooze button.
I am appalled at this lack of discipline and ambition! However, I must confess that in my younger days, I got in the habit of putting my alarm on temporary pause repeatedly, which often caused me to run late for class. That would not do! Therefore, I purchased a cleverly built clock called the Clocky that rolls away when ringing, thus forcing you to jump out of bad to hunt it down. Highly recommended!
Putting aside my negative attitude about snoozers, I do feel bad for those subjected to the sleep study because as reported by the New York Times: “Immediately after the participants woke up, the researchers flipped on the lights and presented them with math problems and other cognitive tests — a challenge even more grating than a shrieking alarm, and one the participants had to complete before having a cup of coffee.”** Oof!
The good news for you slackers who do not leap out bed like I do is that this new study provides a pass for delaying the inevitable: “Snoozing [for 30 minutes] does not lead to cognitive impairments upon waking.” Just do not sleep through your final exam on math. That would be a nightmare!
*Is snoozing losing? Why intermittent morning alarms are used and how they affect sleep, cognition, cortisol, and mood , Journal of Sleep Research, October 17, 2023.
**“You Snooze, You … Win?”, Dani Blum, Oct. 18, 2023.
Age vs happiness—some ups and downs
Posted by mark in Uncategorized, Wellness on December 19, 2022
The “mid-life crisis” provides endless amusement from over-the-hill fellows trying to hold on to their youth via frivolous purchases (e.g., a sportscar) and foolish escapades (e.g., young women). A few years ago, economist David Blanchflower pinpointed 47.2 as the age when unhappiness reaches this minimum.* However, my re-analysis of his data indicate a very plausible complication to this picture: A late 20s dip creating a double “U” in the happiness curve.
After importing Blanchflower’s life-satisfaction data** into Stat-Ease software, I applied a 6th order polynomial model—not just the 2nd order quadratic typically used for simplification. This more sophisticated analysis reveals an initial dip at 24.1 years before the ‘mid-life crisis’ coming at 50.9 years of age.
Of course, all of us differ individually in our happiness throughout our lives, but it is interesting to see how we compare to the average person in this regard. Although I would not mind a rejuvenation to my mid-20s physical fitness, it really is great to be well past the unhappiness of those youthful days and the subsequent stress that comes at mid-life. Old guys really do rule for happiness by my reckoning.
Cheers!
*Research Shows People Become Increasingly Unhappy Until Age 47.2, Inc., 1/30/20.
**Figure 2: “US Gallup Daily Tracker Cantril’s 11-step life satisfaction ladder, 2008-2018, no control curve”, Is happiness U-shaped everywhere? Age and subjective well-being in 145 countries, David G. Blanchflower, Journal of Population Economics, v34, pp 575–624, 9/9/20.
Embrace coincidences to shore up your well-being
Posted by mark in Uncategorized, Wellness on October 19, 2022
Being a believer in the power of positivity, I am always on the lookout for the bright side of life. For example, while out for a very chilly walk this morning, I was delighted to see a dozen or so bluebirds perched along a fence next to the sidewalk. I embraced this happy coincidence!
Professor David Hand, former Chair in Statistics at Imperial College, London, made a case that these little miracles occur daily.* You just need to be pay attention. I got some great reinforcement for collecting coincidences from a report last week by Wall Street Journal columnist Elizabeth Anne Bernstein.** She provided a great example of a fortuitous series of events that led to a wonderful meeting with a friend of her father, who passed away earlier this year.
“Surprising concurrent events can help us reach decisions, soothe us in grief and tighten our connections to others.
Elizabeth Anne Bernstein
Although some people believe in divine causes for coincidences such as Elizabeth’s,*** I think they occur at random and get selectively noticed due to personal biases. In any case, I am happy for anyone who gains comfort from them.
PS For an excellent breakdown of coincidence by serendipity (“happy accidents”) versus synchronicity (an acausal “falling together in time” see this 2021 Psychology Today explanation by Bernard D. Beitman, M.D. of Meaningful Coincidences.
PPS On a related, more humorous note, check out this ‘heads-up’ on the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon. Eery!
*See my 2014 blog explaining why Laws of nature lead to rare events that really ought not surprise anyone
**The Hidden Power of Coincidences
***For example, many believed in a heavenly arrangement for the simultaneous deaths of Thomas Jefferson and John Adams on July 4, 1826—exactly 50 years after each had signed the Declaration of Independence.
New insights this summer on human limits to heat
Posted by mark in Uncategorized, Wellness on August 19, 2022
These late August days in Minnesota bring back poignant memories of the treasured time after the dog days of summer with the start of school looming. The cool breezes of late summer provided welcome relief for the sleepless nights spent sweltering on the top level of my bunk on the second floor of our two-story house in our un-air-conditioned bedroom.
Now comes the bad news from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that the average overnight temperature in the USA this July was the hottest on record.* But the good news is that the great majority of households nowadays (as of 2020) feature A/C. For the cool stats, see this 8/15/22 post by the Energy Institute on How Many U.S. Households Don’t Have Air Conditioning.
I never paid much attention to heat and humidity until my undergraduate studies in chemical engineering at the University of Minnesota. Then I came to appreciate the impact of ambient conditions. Our lab instructor taught us how to measure moisture in the air via a sling psychrometer such as the one demonstrated very delightfully “down under” here. The resulting reading is called the wet bulb temperature.
If you must venture out into the mid-day sun, be careful not to go beyond what your body can balance for the heat. As reported here on July 6, researchers at Penn State University (PSU) discovered that “heat + humidity gets dangerous faster than many people realize.” Their findings came from experiments on 25 young adults who each swallowed a small telemetry pill, which monitored their core temperature. Previous studies** suggested that most people can tolerate a wet-bulb temperature of up to 95 degrees F. But the new data from PSU lowers this limit to 88 degrees.
“When the body overheats, the heart has to work harder to pump blood flow to the skin to dissipate the heat, and when you’re also sweating, that decreases body fluids. In the direst case, prolonged exposure can result in heat stroke, a life-threatening problem that requires immediate and rapid cooling and medical treatment.”
– W. Larry Kenney, Professor of Physiology, Kinesiology and Human Performance, Penn State, and his PSU H.E.A.T Project team
The tolerance to heat and humidity is certainly even less for people over 65, who, according to the PSU researchers comprise 80-90 percent of heat-wave casualties. They will now shift their experimental focus to this older generation.
Be careful out there!
* “The U.S. in July set a new record for overnight warmth”, The Associated Press, August 13, 2022.
** Sherwood & Huber, “An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 5/3/10, 107 (21) 9552-9555.
Megastudy uncovers secret to motivation for exercise
Posted by mark in Consumer behavior, Wellness on January 10, 2022
Over half of all Americans making resolutions for 2021 made exercise their top priority according to this report from Statista. Unfortunately, most people who decide to work out more often after being ‘flabbergasted’* by the year-end holidays will fall off by the 17th of January—cruelly declared as “Quitter’s Day” by fitness tracker Strava.
However, the results of a new ‘megastudy’ reported by this report last month in Nature provides some hope for certain interventions getting folks back on their treadmills or the like. A team of scientists in collaboration with 24 Hour Fitness created a “Step Up” program that, with a small incentive ($1 in Amazon points), drew in 61,000 members. They then divided up the group into groups to test over 50 four-week programs aimed at increasing weekly gym visits.
Only 8% of the interventions led to participants making a significant change in their behavior. The most successful approach, increasing attendance by 27% versus the control group, came by giving people about 10 cents in reward points for returning to the gym after missing a workout. Surprisingly, a larger monetary reward (~$1.75) produced slightly less improvement.
“Try not to miss more than one workout.”
Advice from lead-author Katy Milkman, a behavioral scientist and professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
I like the New York Times December 8th “Phys Ed” take-home on this megastudy. “Find small ways to reward ourselves when we exercise as planned. Drop a dollar into a bowl for every workout, for instance, and let the proceeds mount.” Better yet, make an appreciable monetary bet with a friend that you will keep up your workouts. Along those lines, why not make it mutual? Fun!
Since this study only involved people motivated enough to join a gym, it would be a stretch (fitness pun?) to expect similar results for those remaining anchored to their couch. Perhaps attaching a dollar bill to a reeling fishing line might lure these slackers into moving about a bit. Worth a try!
*A neologism (newly coined word) becoming popular in these pandemic times of chronic overeating meaning “appalled over how much weight you have gained.”
Raisin Bran sun wearing sunglasses and other shady “alternate memories”
Your mind plays many frustrating tricks. For example, as I detailed in How to arrest what’s-his-name’s [Ebbinghaus] forgetting curve, the brain purges valuable information far too quickly. A fellow statistical trainer recently refreshed my memory of the forgetting curve—citing this study that replicated the original experimental results from Ebbinghaus.
Coincidentally, I watched Friday’s episode of the quirky new “How to With John Wilson” HBO show*, which featured widely shared alternate (false!) memories such as:
- The Raisin Bran sun wearing sunglasses
- Stouffer’s Stove Top Stuffing mix
- Mandela dying in prison.
The last common misconception spawned a growing belief in what became known as the “Mandela Effect”. Check out this list with hundreds of other alternate memories and see if some resonate with your recollection. If so, you may be living in an alternate universe!
The “Mandela Effect” really plays tricks with your mind with memories that never happened but seem as if they did. However, it may not be evidence of a multiverse, but rather more mundane mental mistakes explained here by Healthline.
Never mind the Mandela Effect, the memory lapse that works for me is the forgetting curve—it doing its magic on the year of 2020.
“Forgetfulness is a form of freedom.”
― Kahlil Gibran
* Reviewed highly here by Vulture.
Moving averages creating coronavirus confusion
Posted by mark in Uncategorized, Wellness on October 26, 2020
The statistics being reported on Covid-19 keep pouring in—far too much information by my reckoning. Per the nation’s top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, I focus on positivity rates as a predictor of the ups and down of the coronavirus. However, the calculations for even this one statistic cause a great deal of controversy, especially in times like now with rising cases of Covid-19.
For example, as reported by The Las Vegas Review-Journal last week, positivity rates for the Nevada now vary by an astounding five-fold range depending on the source of the statistics. It doesn’t help that the State went from 7-day to 14-day moving averages, thus dampening down an upsurge.
“We’re trying to get that trend to be as smooth as possible, so that an end user can look at it and really follow that line and understand what’s happening.”
State of Nevada Chief Biostatistician Kyra Morgan, Nevada changed how it measures COVID’s impact. Here’s why., The Las Vegas Review-Journal, 10/22/20
My preference is 7 days over 14 days, but, in any case, I would always like to see the raw data graphed along with the smoothed curves. The Georgia Rural Health Innovation Center provided an enlightening primer on moving averages this summer just as State Covid-19 cases spiked. Notice how the 7-day averaging takes out most of the noise in the data. The 14-day approach goes a bit too far in my opinion—blunting the spike at the end.
I advise that you pay attention to the nuances behind Covid-19 statistics, in particular the moving averages and how they get shifted from time to time.
PS My favorite method for smoothing is exponentially weighted moving averages. See it explained at this NIST Engineering Statistics Handbook post. It is quite easy to generate with a simple spreadsheet. With a smoothing constant of 0.2 (my preference) you get an averaging similar to a moving average of 5 periods, but it is far more responsive to more current results.
Assessing the threat from Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) via quantitative analytics
“In God we trust. All others must provide data.”
Dr. William Schaffner, a preventive medicine specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, quoted by NY Times on 2/2/20 in their report that “Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say”.
Stay calm and carry on is a good mantra for these unsettled times. But it pays to keep an eye on developments with a critical view on the facts so far as they can be ascertained. Here are some interesting statistics and data-driven observations on the impact thus far and in future of 2019-nCoV from the New York Times:
- Fatalities now come to 425 in mainland China as of Tuesday morning according to this latest news, eclipsing Chinese deaths from SARS (349). For a view of its spread throughout Asia, see the Coronavirus Map via the link above.
- For a very enlightening interactive-graphical view graphics see this in-depth report.
Keep in mind that much remains to be determined. For example, it may turn out that 2019-nCoV for better (less fatal) or worse (more infectious) may turn out to be more like 2009 H1N1 Swine flu than SARS.
You, like me, may be curious about the effectiveness of wearing a mask. From this NPR investigation, I surmise that N95 respirators, such as those made by 3M, work best, but only if fitted properly and worn with great discipline in not touching one’s face. In any case during this flu season, we all need to wash our hands with soap and water often (hand sanitizers don’t work nearly so well by my reckoning) and stay home if we get sick.
For what it’s worth, that’s my take for now. You all must make your own judgments. All I suggest is that you not let fear rule—assess the data and adjust your thinking as more accumulates. But best you be conservative on the safe side.
PS. Those of you who fly frequently are well-advised to check out this advice from yesterday’s Wall Street Journal. I am comforted by the statistic of 99.9% particulate removal and thus “the cabin air environment is not conducive to the spread of most infectious diseases” per the CDC. However, as always, it’s best to be careful during times when the flu and/or other viruses run rampant.
Achieve New Year’s resolution to reduce stress at your work-desk
With the page turned over to 2020, office-workers worldwide must bear down again and do even better than ever before. If you did really well in last year, that just raises expectations for a similar improvement over the next 12 months. Naturally stress levels rise and performance drops off into a downward spiral. But, no worries, a solution is at hand: Simply pick up a small plant, preferably fool-proof such as these fine fifteen recommended by House Beautiful. Then, per a study by Japanese scientists*, whenever you feel worn down, take a 3 minute break to gaze at your plant and, when needed, care for it. Based on the results from experiments on over 60 participants, you will become more relaxed (as measured by pulse rate) and relieved of anxiety (based on scoring).
“Nature can serve as an antidote to over-stimulation or “attention fatigue,” as well as boost cognitive performance.”
Cory Steig, Health and Wellness Reporter, Make It, CNBC, 3/3/20, “This 3-minute, $3 habit could lower your stress and anxiety at work”.
It works for me. In any case, happy New Year! Don’t let the stress get to you.
* Toyoda, et al, “Potential of a Small Indoor Plant on the Desk for Reducing Office Workers’ Stress”, 12/19/19, HortTechnology.
Testing the adage that if you drink beer before wine then you will feel fine
Just in time for the partying hearty for Christmas today, my son-in-law Ryan, a chemist with 3M, alerted me to a statistical study published after last year’s holiday season by the The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition that questioned the advice of grape or grain but never the twain. Naturally, being a drinker of these undistilled alcoholic beverages, I wondered if my tendency to drink beer before dinner and wine for the meal would pass the test. But being a wonk for design of experiments, I was most curious to see a randomized controlled multiarm matched-triplet crossover trial—pictured below for this experiment on the order of addition for beer and/or wine.
Based on results from 90 participants, including a control group, “neither type nor order of consumed alcoholic beverages significantly affected hangover intensity (P > 0.05)”. What really mattered was the total consumption, although, interestingly, hangover intensity did not correlate to breath alcohol concentration (BrAC). However, the authors warn that
“The fact that we did not find a direct correlation between maximal BrAC and hangover intensity should not be misinterpreted as an invitation to drink until the cows come home. Likely, this correlation overall does exist but is not directly apparent in the narrow range of peak alcohol levels studied here.”
It’s disclosed at the end that Carlsberg provided the beer (premium Pilsner lager recipe from 1847) free of charge “for the sole purpose of utilization in this study”. Although I trust the author’s disclaimer of any bias, perhaps further study is warranted with stronger beers such as a Belgian trippel. Maybe wine would then be best drunk first. To be continued…