Butterfly effect debunked (but, even so, best you not step on them)
It’s peak butterfly season—a beautiful time of the year to watch for these wonderfully winged insects, such as the Tiger Swallowtail caught on camera this week by my son-in-law Ryan Bretzel.
Coincidentally, physicists from the Los Alamos National Laboratory just announced* that we need not worry about butterflies in Minnesota setting off hurricanes in Florida, as speculated by chaoticians (such as Dr. Ian Malcolm in the movie Jurassic Park).
“For those interested in the technical details, a number of entangled qubits were run through a set of logic gates before being returned to their initial setup.”
– Mike McRae, Science Alert, 7/31/20, Time Travel Simulation Shows Quantum ‘Butterfly Effect’ Doesn’t Exist
That’s one less thing to worry about for Floridians! They need all the help they can get, being at the peak of pandemic and hurricane season.
* Recovery of Damaged Information and the Out-of-Time-Ordered Correlators, Bin Yan and Nikolai A. Sinitsyn, Physical Review Letters, 125, 040605 – Published 24 July 2020.
Humans cannot wolf down hot dogs as fast as a wolf, scientist calculates
Here at the heart of summer in middle America, hot dogs reign supreme (or at least as co-rulers with hamburgers and brats). Their tubular geometry facilitates ingestion with minimal obstacles as attested by Joey Chestnut—winner again of the Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest on this year’s Independence day. His new record of 75 consumed in 10 minutes probably approaches the theoretical maximum, according to a statistical study by a veterinarian and human biomechanics researcher.
The author, Professor James Smoliga from High Point University in North Carolina, worked out 83 as the number of hot dogs being humanly possible to eat in such a short time. My hunch is that Chestnut and his fellow competitors will be working-out all year to demolish this ‘Smoliga’ bar.
For all the scientific details see the July 15 Royal Society publication of Modelling the maximal active consumption rate and its plasticity in humans—perspectives from hot dog eating competitions.
“These contests provide each individual with an unlimited, ready-to-consume food supply. Thus, participants can focus all of their efforts on maximizing consumption, rather than investing energy into foraging, chasing prey or competing with others for access to a dwindling supply.”
Dr. James Smoliga speaking on the advantages of human hot-dog eaters at a staged event such as the 2020 Nathans Famous event (check out the wacky hats worn by the spectators—gotta love that mustard!)
Even a glutton for statistics gets choked up by the feast of analysis provided by Smoliga, but I did find the comparison between species very tasty, especially the bit about grizzly bears being on par with humans for active consumption rate (ACR). However, having owned a number of big dogs and seen them demolish entire platters of barbecued meats left within reach, I was not surprised that, per Smoliga’s calculations, a grey wolf can eat meaty foods at more than double the rate of a person.
I suggest putting Smoliga’s speculations to the test at next year’s event: Pit the winner against a wolf and a grizzly for the interspecies champion of hot dog eating.
Being kind pays off—wear a mask for the sake of others and earn positive returns
Posted by mark in Consumer behavior, Uncategorized on July 6, 2020
Last month I reported the positive news that people really do like to help others. I figured it would be best to focus on the kind behavior seen even in the most troubling times of tensions here in Minneapolis and around the world.
Since then the coronavirus flared up across the USA. Despite this, many Americans remain adamant against wearing masks, even though this would be kind to their fellow citizens.
I get it—no one likes to be told what to do and the face coverings create a lot of hot and bother. My approach, being committed to kindness, is to always wear a mask in public indoor spaces while steering clear of anyone going without one, choosing times and stores that provide plenty of maneuvering room.
Two books coming out this month provide some hope that mask-averse people may come around to kindly covering up on Covid-19: Survival of the Friendliest and The Kindness of Strangers. They generated a buzz for kindness that got amplified by the Associated Press last week in their report on Not so random acts: Science finds that being kind pays off.
“Doing kindness makes you happier and being happier makes you do kind acts.”
Economist Richard Layard
For those of you who seek data on why people are kind or unkind, check out Oliver Scott Curry’s Kindlab. I love the graphic showing the scientist measuring the height of the “K: Check it out for laughs! Then follow the link to “doing a kind act has a significant effect on well-being” for results gleaned from 27 experimental studies.
There are some caveats, however. The effects reported by Curry et al are small. Also, the individual studies tend to be underpowered—averaging only about a third of the number of subjects needed to detect effects of interest.
Furthermore, it’s clear from Kindlab and other sources (for example, my prior blog noted at the outset of this post), that many people lack a motivation to be kind.
For example, a twenty-something bar-hopper is very unlikely to wear an unfashionable, drink-inhibiting mask. Why bother to protect his or her peers from a disease that probably won’t kill them anyways (never mind the grandparents).
How can this dangerously unkind behavior be turned around?
Fun with colors
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on June 26, 2020
Download one of these color-identifier apps to your cell phone for some summer ‘staycation’ fun. Stop and measure the roses!
I did so with the top-rated Color Grab. It reported “Brilliant Rose” and “Golden Yellow” for the flowers in my vase.
The ‘heads-up’ about Color Grab came from Oliver Thunich—a master statistician who teaches DOE for our German affiliate Statcon. He came up with an innovative way to demonstrate mixture design for optimal formulation by blending three juices: clear apple, passion fruit, and pink grapefruit.
Using Design-Expert® software Oliver developed an experiment with 20 recipes that varied the ingredients in an optimal way to model the resulting color in RGB (three responses).
Based on the results, I came up with the ideal formulation (flagged on the 3d graph) to produce a Pure Red color with as little of the expensive passion fruit as possible.
My high point in coloring came in kindergarten when the teacher sent me home after coloring with a black crayon on black paper—just too dark by her reckoning. However, now that I know that color can be engineered, I may pick it up again. In any case, I do appreciate an array of red, green and blue (i.e., RGB) and all that’s in between, especially in a floral display.
P.S. A hummingbird just flew up to my home-office screen window—just a foot away from where I sit. It would be interesting to see what the color identifier comes up with for this iridescent-feathered friend.
Positive news for troubling times: People really do like to help others
Posted by mark in Consumer behavior on June 19, 2020
Being Minneapolis based and seeing all the strife these last few weeks, it was heartening to see that this Large-Scale Experiment Shows People Want to Help Each Other, Even When It Costs Them Something.
“It [prosocial behavior] means doing something for someone else at a cost to yourself. One example would be paying for the person behind you’s order at the coffee shop. Or right now, wearing your mask in public. It’s a cost to you; it’s uncomfortable. But you contribute to the public good by wearing it and not spreading the virus. From an evolutionary perspective, it’s kind of perplexing that it even exists, because you’re decreasing your own fitness on behalf of others.”
– David Melamed, Associate Professor of Sociology at The Ohio State University, lead author of “The robustness of reciprocity”, Science Advances, 6/3/20
The experiment, which involved 700 people, showed prosocial behavior persisted no matter what the mix of motivators. It is very sweet to see anyone of any age, from toddler to senior, help one another. I don’t know of many things that give me more satisfaction than lending a hand. Come on everyone, be nice—you will feel better for it! It’s time we turned all the frowns upside down.
Baking bread breaks up boredom of being home bound, but baffles many
Market research firm Nielsen reported sales of baking yeast surging by over 600% when the coronavirus cooped up most of America in March. It seemed like a good idea to pass the time. However, as I can attest, getting a loaf to rise can be frustratingly hit-or-miss. The Wall Street Journal described botched breads as “hockey pucks”—my words exactly when describing too-frequent failures with machine-made bread.
“We’ve all decided to bake bread, but a lot of us are ending up with hockey pucks.”
Annie Gasparro and James R. Hagerty, “We’re All Baking Bread Now (And Many of Us Are Failing at It)”, Wall Street Journal, April 2, 2020 (updated web post)
It turns out that multifactor design of experiments (DOE) provides an ideal way to troubleshoot baking problems. See in this show-and-tell* how I successfully applied DOE to rise above (pun intended) the hockey pucks. that provided.
All the best for your baking. We all need some levity nowadays, which can be accomplished with the proper leavening (dough!). Enjoy!
*Published by Quality Progress: “Augmented Ruggedness Testing To Prevent Failures”, Vol. 36, Nº 5, 2003, pp. 38-45, and posted by them for subscribers-only in this archival site.
“DOE It Yourself” hits the spot for distance-learning projects
Every spring for the last two decades I travel to Rapid City to teach design of experiments (DOE) for the Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology (SDSMT). The highlight of these classes comes when students compete in a flyoff of their paper helicopters developed via the multifactor tools of DOE. They provide an awesome demonstration of design of experiments.
Unfortunately, the Covid-19 pandemic made it impossible for students to team up this year. However, this provided the opportunity for them to each do their their own experiments. I provided an extensive number of suggestions via this DOE It Yourself compilation. Most of the students chose one of these, but a few came up with new ones, such as the one of legal drinking age who sipped tiny amounts (for tasting only, I was assured) of variously concocted Margaritas. The variety of experiments amazed me:
- Cooking eggs to perfection
- Playing tabletop hockey
- Blending a most refreshing Margarita
- Shooting Nerf arrows
- Sharpening up hand-eye coordination
- Flying paper helicopters
- Soaking colors into celery
- Finding fabrics with maximum absorbency
- Making the perfect cup of coffee
- Baking delicious cookies (I asked to be on the taste panel for round 2)
- Mixing good Gatorades
- Producing the perfect puffed rice
- Manufacturing fearsome fighter jets
- Catapulting projectiles with a clothes-pin
- Chipping golf balls more accurately (I wish this could translate to my game)
- Breaking paper clips for stress relief
- Creating craters in the kitchen
- Spinning balls down a funnel
- Sinking boats with too much treasure (see video by Nghia Thai )
Congratulations to SDSMT and their students of DOE for such great work—them not letting the pandemic get in the way for learning how to experiment more effectively via these statistically rigorous, multifactor methods.
Business community discovers that “Experimentation Works”
Posted by mark in design of experiments on April 21, 2020
Last month the Wall Street Journal “Bookshelf” (3/15/20, David A. Shaywitz) featured a review of a book about The Surprising Power of Business Experiments.
“Tests at Microsoft in 2012 revealed that a tiny adjustment in the way its Bing search engine displayed ad headlines resulted in a 12% increase in revenue, translating into an extra $100 million annually for the company in the U.S. alone.”
Stefan Thomke, author of Experimentation Works: The Surprising Power of Business Experiments.
It’s great to see attention paid to the huge advantages gained from statistically rigorous experiments. However, vastly greater returns await those willing to go beyond simple-comparative one-factor A/B testing to multifactor design of experiments. The reason is obvious: Only by testing more than one factor at a time, can interactions be discovered.
A case in point is provided by an experiment I did on postcard advertisements. It produced a non-intuitive finding that, unlike marketers, our engineering clients preferred less colorful layouts. Knowing this, we succeeded in increasing our response at a far lower printing cost. See the proof in the interaction plot at the conclusion of this white paper on That Voodoo We Do – Marketers Are Embracing Statistical Design of Experiments.
Another compelling example of the value of multifactor testing is illustrated by website-conversion results* shown here—produced from a replicated, full, two-level factorial design.
The key to a more than 5-fold increase in clicks turned out to be the combination of going to a modern font (factor A) with a more compelling button label (C). A third factor (B), background being white versus blue, did not create a significant effect, which also provided valuable insights on the drivers for conversion.
Why settle for testing only one factor when, without investing much more time, if any, you can investigate many factors and, as a huge bonus, detect possible interactions?
*From Pochiraju & Seshadri, Essentials of Business Analytics, 2019, Springer, p 737.
Beware of birds making stick bombs in your backyard
Posted by mark in Nature, Uncategorized on April 13, 2020
One advantage of being home-bound during this COVID-19 pandemic is spending more time watching the birds. I especially like the cardinals who flock to my feeder in a variety of plumage being male, female or juvenile. However, the finches are fun to see as well, particularly the yellow ones. The other day a blue jay came by to provide a bit of blue for the color mix.
While greatly appreciating birds, I failed to recognize their superior engineering skills until reading this New York Times article about avian nest construction. They report how researchers at University of Akron used a ‘smushing’ chamber to measure how bird-homes bounce back after being compressed.
“We hypothesize that a bird nest might effectively be a disordered stick bomb, with just enough stored energy to keep it rigid.”
Hunter King, experimental soft-matter physicist, University of Akron*
I now feel a lot smarter saying “smushing”, it being a scientific term used by world-class physicists. However, I’m more interested in the stick-bomb bit. This is explained best by Popular Mechanics in their report (stemming from the same scientific study by Hunter et al) on Why the Humble Bird Nest Is an Engineering Marvel.
As a fun project to while away the time indoors, build your own stick bombs using popsicle or jumbo sticks such as those available here.
The stick bomb illustrated in this video by Brain Coach Don offers a great deal of excitement, but I do not recommend it for building bird nests—ha ha. The difference is them making ones that are disordered and thus nonexplosive.
*(Mechanics of randomly packed filaments—The “bird nest” as meta-material, Journal of Applied Physics 127, 050902 (2020))
Pi day—tau be or not tau be, that is the question
Posted by mark in pop, Uncategorized on March 14, 2020
Math-savvy pizza and pie shops around the world will be celebrating this afternoon of 3/14 at 3:14 pm to honor the mathematical constant pi.
Rounding pi to 3.14 suffices for most rational people, but those of you who are trained matheletes might like to carry this never-ending irrational number out to 100 or a 1000 decimal places. If so, knock yourself out at this post by math.com. You might as well quit at this point because the record is now 50 trillion digits, held by cybersecurity analyst Timothy Mullican who used 303 days of computation to complete this calculation, which he detailed here.
A good way to build up your chops on pi is to memorize a ‘piem’, that is a poem in which the length of each word represents a number, for example, “Now I need a drink, alcoholic of course, after the heavy lectures involving quantum mechanics.” See a much longer (101 digits!) piem sung by musician Andrew Huang and many other amazing feats related to pi in this article by Andrew Whalen posted today by Newsweek.
Sadly, some mathematicians are reigning in the pi parade by insisting it be doubled to the constant tau.
“To describe 3/4 of a circle in trigonometry, you would say 3/4 tau radians. But in the pi world, that’s 3/2 pi radians. ‘Blegh!’ says Prof. [Bob] Palais [Utah Valley University]. ‘People are so ingrained that they don’t even see how stupid it is.’”
For Math Fans, Nothing Can Spoil Pi Day—Except Maybe Tau Day
Wall Street Journal, 3/14/20
You’d best circle (ha ha-math joke) June 28 to celebrate Tau Day, even though that’s no reason to eat pizza or any other kind of pie.