Feeling Fall finally–thoughts turn to Florida…but, given their gators, do we dare go?
Talk about the office this week blew with the strong northern winds to consideration of making a move to the South. When I suggested Florida, a colleague expressed concerns about alligators, such as this one that put an end to a jogger. This led me to doing some research on the relative risks of Nature down there in God’s Waiting Room.
Check out these stats that surprised me with evidence that ‘gators are worse than sharks.
Elsewhere I learned that there’s been 52 lighting deaths in Florida over the last 10 years.
Here’s a recap of these grisly stats for Florida:
- Gators—3 deaths per decade
- Sharks—1.4 killed every 10 years
- Lightning—52 fried per decade
It turns out that the latter are mainly men out fishing (>80 % of the deaths)—probably trying to catch sharks or gators.
Maybe I will just stay here in Minnesota and take my chances on either freezing to death or being eaten by wolves.
Putting the cheeriest spin on 2013 World Happiness report by the United Nations
Kudos to Bloomberg Businessweek graphics editor Evan Applegate for this breakdown showing Peru on top for achieving the biggest percent gain in happiness over the past 5 years. One of my daughters moved to Arequipa this summer and started up an organic chocolatieria and coffee shop so I’ve no doubt that this is now the nexus of burgeoning bliss. 
If you squint while taking a test will it improve your score?
In a 2007 experiment, researchers at Princeton split 40 math students into two groups for a test written up in two fonts—one clear and the other difficult (italic, light gray). Counter-intuitively the latter group scored 29 percent higher. In his new book David and Goliath, Malcolm Gladwell, renowned for the best seller the popular Outliers, cites this as an example of how “facing overwhelming odds produces greatness,” or, as Nietzsche said “That which does not kill us makes us stronger.” This works for me—being up for challenges, but perhaps it cannot be extrapolated to the people in general. As Christopher Chabris cautions in this Wall Street Journal review yestertoday, provocative results like the ones from Princeton often cannot be reproduced. He warns:
“Anyone who has followed recent developments in social science should know that small studies with startling effects must be viewed skeptically until their results are verified on a broader scale. They might hold up, but there is a good chance they will turn out to be spurious.”
If it seems too counter-intuitive to be true, perhaps it isn’t—best in these cases you await confirmation by others in adequately-powered verification experiments.
Tailgaters not put off by center high mounted stop lamps
Posted by mark in Consumer behavior, pop on September 12, 2013
According to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) nearly a third of all crashes are rear-enders. So, when an experiment by psychologist John Voevodsky in 1974 found that San Francisco taxis equipped with a third brake light suffered 60.6% fewer rear-end collisions, it got the attention of the NHTSA. After replicating these results on a larger scale, they required center high mounted stop lamps (CHMSL) on all new cars in 1986. However, recent studies show a reduction in accidents of only 5%!*
I suppose drivers now are too busy texting to be deterred by CHMSL. ; ) But now Ford is experimenting on wirelessly warning those following when a driver puts the brakes on. See more details here. I suggest it set an alarm off on cell phones too—similar to wireless emergency alerts.
But the only real solution to rear-end collisions would be a system that automatically reduces speed on serial tailgaters. They are a menace to society in my opinion. Meantime let’s hope our highway patrols do what these cops did on California’s freeways.
*(Thanks to University of Minnesota Professor Sanford Weisberg of the School of Statistics for bringing this to my attention in his seminar today.)
Little correlation between pay and how meaningful you find your work
Posted by mark in Consumer behavior, pop, Uncategorized, Wellness on September 1, 2013
The August 26 issue of Business Week features this chart on median salary versus job meaning developed by salary comparison site PayScale. See if your profession is listed and, if so, how your colleagues rated their work.
I find it interesting that one of the lowest paying jobs—water treatment plant operator—came in at 100 percent self-rating of high job meaning. On the other hand, a securities trader makes twice the pay but only 14 percent felt their work meant much.
Neurosurgeons come out tops on both counts—salary and meaningfulness. That takes brains getting into a position like this. ; )
One of the least-paying jobs listed by PayScale is gas station attendant—it is also, evidently, nearly completely meaningless. It seems that a person stuck with this work would do well by becoming a dog kennel worker: The pay is about the same but carers for canines rates their job at 64% on the meaningful scale. My pet Penny (pictured sharing water with my grandson) approves. : )
Machine provides the perfect pour for Japanese beer
Awaiting a flight out of Japan’s Narita Airport, I came across this beer-pouring machine in the Delta lounge. See it in action here. It turns out that there’s a science to pouring beer as I reported in this article explaining how UK Boffins Pull Off Brilliant DOE on Beer. The only drawback of this machine is that it lacks conversational skills. I found it a bit awkward sitting there with my perfectly poured beer and no one to talk to while enjoying it. 
Negativity about positivity
Every day for me is a battle to keep up the positivity and dampen down the negativity–I just feel better doing this, especially when others respond in kind. This news from The Scientist debunking the “positivity ratio” makes my goal easier–I need only aim to be on the plus side, even by a tiny little bit–not on a nearly 3 to 1 basis.
P.S. Being its now past noon on Wednesday we are over the hump on the work week. Cheers!
Poll says no MOE to the current Congress—83 percent disapprove
I just saw this NBC/WSJ poll graphically displayed on the nightly news. In the small print I saw “MOE +/- 3%” which threw me for a moment wondering if this data was being disrupted by the leader of the Three Stooges. But then I realized this was the margin of error. For a helpful detailing of MOE that breaks things down to simpler terms—a giant jar of a 200 million jelly beans—check out this white paper by Roper Center. Despite the inherent uncertainty of polls (estimated by MOE), the politicians in Washington cannot discount this clarion call (a record percent!) for change.
“naked statistics” not very revealing
Posted by mark in Basic stats & math, pop on July 18, 2013
One of my daughters gave me a very readable book by economist Charles Wheelan titled “naked statistics, Stripping the Dread from the Data”. She knew this would be too simple for me, but figured I might pick up some ways to explain statistics better, which I really appreciate. However, although I very much liked the way Wheelan keeps things simple and makes it fun, his book never did deliver any nuggets that could be mined for my teachings. Nevertheless, I do recommend “naked statistics” for anyone who is challenged by this subject. It helps that author is not a statistician. ; )
By the way, there is very little said in this book about experiment design. Wheelan mentions in his chapter on “Program Evaluation” the idea of a ‘natural experiment’, that is, a situation where “random circumstances somehow create something approximating a randomized, controlled experiment.” So far as I am concerned “natural” data (happenstance) and results from an experiment cannot be mixed, thus natural experiment is an oxymoron, but I get the point of exploiting an unusually clean contrast ripe for the picking. I only advise continued skepticism on any results that come from uncontrolled variables.*
*Wheelan cites this study in which the author, economist Adriana Lleras-Muney, made use of a ‘quasi-natural experiment’ (her term) to conclude that “life expectancy of those adults who reached age thirty-five was extended by an extra one and a half years just by their attending one additional year of school” (quote from Whelan). Really!?
Kids & Science
Posted by mark in pop, science, Uncategorized on June 23, 2013
I am heartened to hear of great work being done by current and former colleagues to get K-12 kids involved in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM). For example, Columbia Academy, a middle school (grades 6-8) in Columbia Heights (just north of Minneapolis), held an Engineering and Science Fair last month where two of our consultants, Pat Whitcomb and Brooks Henderson, joined a score of other professional engineers who reviewed student projects. Winners will present their projects this summer at the University of Minnesota’s STEM Colloquium.
Also, I ran across a fellow I worked with at General Mills years ago who volunteers his time to teach middle-schoolers around the Twin Cities an appreciation for chemistry. He makes use of the American Chemical Society (ACS) “Kids & Chemistry” program, which offers complete instructions and worksheets for many great experiments at middle-school level. Follow this link to discover:
– Chemistry’s Rainbow: “Interpret color changes like a scientist as you create acid and base solutions, neutralize them, and observe a colorful chemical reaction.”
– Jiggle Gels: “Measure with purpose and cause exciting physical changes as you investigate the baby diaper polymer,* place a super-absorbing dinosaur toy in water, and make slime.”
– What’s New, CO2? “Combine chemicals and explore the invisible gas produced to discover how self-inflating balloons work.”
– Several other intriguing activities contributed by ACS members.
Kudos to all scientists, engineers, mathematician/statisticians who are engaging kids in STEM!
*(The super-slurpers invented by the diaper chemists really are quite amazing as I’ve learned from semi-quantitative measurements of weight before and after soakings by my grandson. Thank goodness! Check out this video by “Professor Bunsen”, which includes a trick to recover the liquids that I am not going to try.)