Posts Tagged health
Beware of 5th poly mole!
I found it amusing that, when forced to try modeling my weight data (see previous blog), my DOE software recommended a fifth order polynomial* model! That’s a bit more ‘tayloring’ (Ha ha – inside joke) than I really needed. In fact, just to show how silly this is (5th order!) I offer the following scenario as a cautionary tale. Perhaps it may help to dissuade others who make similarly nonsensical models from what is really just (naturally) randomly generated data.
Looking forward to a work/vacation trip to Tampa in late March (I really will be going there, I am happy to say!), let’s pretend that I use this fifth-order model to help me decide whether to bring a swimming suit. Hmmm, extrapolating out to day 75, when I finish my conference and head for the Gulf shore, the over-fitted model (really should just use the mean!) predicts that by then I will balloon to nearly 100 pounds over my norm. In this case I may easily be mistaken for a beached whale!
It’s just not right to apply model-fitting tools to what is not a DOE, but rather simply a process run-out at steady-state conditions. Extrapolation makes this even more dangerous by far. See the graph for a case in point.
*(A math-phobic person I am acquainted with, whom I will not identify, mockingly refers to these equations as “poly moles” — hence my title for this blog.)
“Welcome, Body Mass seeker”
Posted by mark in Uncategorized, Wellness on February 27, 2011
This is the greeting from Steve Halls, MD, at his web weight-calculator. After a fair amount of searching on the internet, I found this site on body-mass the easiest to use and informative. However, I cannot speak on its accuracy. I will only admit that it provided far less scary news (and realistic, I feel) about my own weight than other websites giving advice on this vital subject.
According to the “updated hall.md v2” standards, I am “marginally overweight” at the 53rd percentile of other American males at my age and height. As we like to say in Minnesota, this could be worse, so it’s not so bad.
Discussing what should be the “ideal” weight would take up a great deal of time and energy: Never mind that. What I want to do is focus on monitoring weight. For example, I just completed the pictured outlier-detecting run-chart* on my 20 weighings** thus far this year. Notice that none of the results fall outside of the 95 percent confidence limits.
Even so, after I penciled in my number for the highlighted point, my wife hassled me a bit about going overweight when she saw . I predicted that she would see a regression to the mean, which didn’t impress her one bit. Nevertheless, the value of being patient by charting data over a period of time can be seen in this instance – it vindicates me not reacting to one result.
Coincidentally, our contract trainer Doug Hubbell came to Minneapolis for our new Advanced Formulations workshop. He is the author of a handbook for managers seeking quality improvement (Managing for Profits – to be published soon). Doug is a plain-talking straight-shooter who rifles in on what’s needed to stop chronic manufacturing waste. Charting is a powerful part of his arsenal of quality tools. His reaction to me mentioning my monitoring of weight was “I hope you do not expect this chart to help you lose pounds.” Naturally I wouldn’t admit to that, but, honestly, it did cross my (hopeful!) mind. However, I am mainly just trying to track a very gradual increase of about 1 pound per year since my high-school graduation, when I was in the best shape of my life.
The battle against the bulge continues…
*Using Design-Expert® software’s diagnostics tools. I focused on a chart that deletes each point before calculating its deviation in terms of standard deviation, which makes it more sensitive to statistical outliers. For details, see this Wikipedia entry on Studentized residual (it explains internal and external methods).
**Done with a new bathroom scale that I really like – this Precision Digital model by EatSmart.
Grade A for long-term health prognosis
I took a high-school classmate out to lunch today for his birthday. Now in his late 50s, my friend has aged well – evidently as healthy as can be. Being that he graduated 6th in our class, my buddy’s exceptional fitness of body and mind fits a profile of well-being that’s characteristic of individuals who excelled academically, according to this report by the New York Times. In a nutshell, a long-term longitudinal study of over 10,000 aging students found that, by their early 60s, those near the top of their class were half as likely to report declines in health than their academically-inferior peers. It seems that the studs for studying end up being a lot heartier than the partyers.
“Academic performance is strongly linked to health in later life.”
– Pamela Herd, associate professor of public affairs and sociology at the University of Wisconsin in Madison and study-author of Education and Health in Late-life among High School Graduates
Happy holidays!
The recent collapse of our Hubert H. Hump-free (ha ha) Metrodome makes it seem like we Minnesotans must be completely deflated (pun intended) from the extraordinary snowfall this month. However, there is an upside to this weather – excellent cross-country skiing conditions. As you can see, this has brightened up my disposition. I like nothing better than a ski through the woods near my home in Stillwater, where I often find myself all alone except for a startled deer — I almost literally ran across a doe (the female ungulate, not a design-of-experiment ) yesterday, for example.
Being in good spirits myself, I wish the same for you this holiday season. Enjoy!
“He gives his harness bells a shake
To ask if there is some mistake.
The only other sound’s the sweep
Of easy wind and downy flake.
The woods are lovely, dark and deep.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep.
And miles to go before I sleep.”
– Excerpt from “Stopping By Woods on a Snowy Evening” by Robert Frost
PS. The shot from ground-level provides the perspective of one of our indigenous snow fleas, which I often see in late winter when it warms up a bit. It’s fun to watch them jump around at random.
Opportunistic eating a problem for new college students
A study recently published online by the Journal of Adolescent Health concludes that female (but not male!) students in dorms with dining halls gained significantly more weight than those who were forced to go out to eat. The lead author, Kandice Kapinos (University of Michigan), took advantage of the practice of colleges to randomly assign dorm rooms. Specifically, she and her study team examined the weight gain of 388 freshmen at Marquette University. (See a few more details in this press release.).However, they relied on self-reporting rather than direct observation and measurement, which creates some doubt about the validity of their conclusions. After all, people have been known to fudge about their weight. 😉
Nevertheless, based on observation of three daughters and two sons who went off to college, I believe that Kapinos et al are really on to something. This was sealed in my mind from the observation of my youngest girl, who soon will start her third year in a biochemistry program. She said it really is very simple – the female students hang around the dorm dining hall for social reasons, during which times they naturally munch on stuff and pack on the pounds. I think for the good of their students it would be wise of schools not to put cafeterias in the dorms.
“I think perhaps that women are a little more socially oriented at college, and one social thing they engage in might be, ‘Let’s go get a snack,’ Men may not tend to do that as much.”
— Wayne Westcott, Senior Fitness Executive for the YMCA in Quincy, Massachusetts
By the way, putting on weight after going away to college — the proverbial “freshman 15” – is bound to happen, I think; and for both men and women. I gained 15 pounds after moving into a dorm at Michigan State University. It had a dining hall in the building. However, I’ll bet I’d have added weight just the same even if the meals were served elsewhere on campus.
Two-level factorial experimentation might make music for my ears
Posted by mark in design of experiments, Uncategorized, Wellness on May 9, 2010
I am a fan of classical music – it soothes my mind and lifts my spirits. Maybe I’m deluded, but I swear there’s a Mozart effect* on my brain. However, a big monkey wrench comes flying in on my blissful state when my stereo speaker (always only one of the two) suddenly goes into a hissy fit. I’ve tried a number of things on a hit-or-miss basis and failed to find the culprit. At this point I think it’s most likely the receiver itself – a Yamaha RX496. However, before spending the money to replace it, I’d like to rule out a number of other factors:
- Speaker set: A vs B
- Speaker wire: Thin vs Thick.
- Source: CD vs FM-Radio
- Speaker: Left vs Right.
It’s very possible that an interaction of two or more factors may be causing the problem, so to cover all bases I need to do all 16 possible combinations (2^4). But, aside from the work this involves for all the switching around of parts and settings, I am stymied by the failure being so sporadic.
Anyways, I feel better now having vented this to my blog while listening to some soothing Sunday choir music by the Dale Warland Singers on the local classical radio station. I’m taking no chances: It’s playing on my backup Panasonic SA-EN25 bookshelf system.
*Vastly over-rated according to this report by the Skeptic’s Dictionary.
Pushing the limits on alcohol levels for holiday cheer – higher the better (?)
Posted by mark in Uncategorized, Wellness on December 24, 2009
Just in time for holiday gift-givers to the guy who already owns everything, Boston Beer Company (BBC) — brewer of Sam Adams lager — announced this year that they’d achieved new heights for alcohol content – over 25 percent by volume. Alcohol levels traditionally have been capped at the 14% level due to natural limits of the yeast that drive fermentation. However, the beer boffins at BBC applied their wits to the zymurgy and came up with “Utopia,” which can be purchased at $599.99 a mini-kettle via this internet purveyor (warning: it’s banned in 13 states!). Otherwise you can await the next batch of ten thousand bottles or so of this potent beer to emerge in two years from the 15-year aging cycle.*
Perhaps this holiday season you may restrict yourself to tamer drinks than high-alcohol beer, such as the traditional eggnog — a “sweetened dairy-based beverage made with milk, cream, sugar, beaten eggs (which gives it a frothy texture), and flavored with ground cinnamon” (according to Wikipedia). However, my plans to pick up our annual eggnog after Thanksgiving were dashed after listening to a recent radio broadcast of NPR’s Science Friday by Ira Flatow. They warned about people (like me) risking salmonella-induced food poisoning by milking their ‘nog clear through Christmas. The show posted this video reporting results from microbiologist Vince Fischetti on his challenge tests** in a lab at the Rockefeller University (RU). I’ve seen these at food clients of Stat-Ease and they gross me out, so I know the end result of dosing up a dairy product with spoilage organisms and pathogens cannot be pretty. Fischetti compared the results after one month of storing a spiked eggnog made by a traditional RU recipe (equal parts bourbon and rum to a 20 % alcohol level) versus one purchased commercially (no alcohol). See the outcome by watching the video – it may encourage you to keep a bottle of spirits on hand. (I’ve got a supply of tequila – just in case.) Being a devotee of DOE, I must say that Fischetti’s findings appear to be based only on sample-size 1. But to his credit, he expresses the desire for grant money leading to more definitive studies.
So whether you hoist a beer or a ‘cheered-up’ glass of eggnog to give your seasonal salute to your friends and family, here’s hoping you all a happy holiday!
*Source for news about high-alcohol beer: 11/30/09 article by Russell Contreras of the Associated Press, seen here as published by the Huffington Post.
** For all the gory details see this posting of Microbiological Challenge Testing by the Institute of Food Technologists (IFT). The “Phoenix” phenomenon is particularly worrying (lethal bugs rising from the ashes of sterilization).
The State of happiness
Posted by mark in Uncategorized, Wellness on December 20, 2009
Those of you American citizens who (like me) enjoy our unalienable pursuit of happiness should see where your home State ranks in this list presented by economists Andrew Oswald and Stephen Wu.
Our local newspaper headlined this report with the suggestion that we Minnesotans “try living in a sunnier State.” I have a hard time arguing with moving to Hawaii or Florida – both near the top the Oswald-Wu list. Louisiana (#1) is a good choice too, I think, despite the setback of Hurricane Katrina. I spent time there and in the neighboring State of Mississippi (#7) last March – a great time to get out of Minnesota (#26). However, I really do enjoy our winters here in the northernmost part of the lower 48. At this time of the year our sun sits nearly at its lowest point (Winter solstice being mid-day tomorrow), which makes any rays one can catch all the more dear.
This morning a little Canadian ‘clipper’ topped off our existing blanket of snow with another inch of sun-sparkled crystals. It was good to be outdoors walking the dog through our little “Sunwood” park of evergreens again after taking a little break on our daily strolls last week due to the bitter cold. Maybe it was just as well we stayed home because a cougar came through our neighborhood (called “Croixwood”) as evidenced by the huge paw print pictured here . The cougar was last sighted in Wisconsin. My guess is that this cat is headed for Florida. =^.^=
Fair food follies – sticking on calories at a prodigious rate
The weather here in Minnesota has been incredibly clement this summer – encouraging more State Fair goers than ever before. The total for the dozen days will likely break the record, now approaching nearly 2 million visits!
My wife and I went for a second time yesterday. Thanks to a tip from my son, I found healthier food fare this time around – a pot-roast sundae (savory roast beef atop a scoop of mashed potatoes mixed with corn – yum!). On our first visit I succumbed to the siren call of a vendor selling deep-fat fried Hostess Twinkies on a stick, to which I compounded the calories by agreeing to it being dipped in chocolate and powdered with sugar. You can see this terrifically calorific confection pictured alongside a free yardstick — a mandatory pickup for any serious fairgoer.
I avoided the bacon on a stick dipped in chocolate at the advice of my daughter, who tried it last year. She worked the Haunted House at the last two Minnesota State Fairs and ate just about everything on a stick. My wife ate a piece of corn on a stick and part of a foot-long corn-dog on a stick. That looked good to me, but I was already satiated by my second sundae — the pot roast: I’d already eaten an ice-cream sundae with rhubarb and strawberries (highly recommended by my colleague Pat).
Several years ago I ate a deep-fat fried Snicker’s candy bar on a stick. Based on a sample size of two, I advice not eating any dessert confection that’s been deep-fat fried. I really think this can be hazardous to one’s health, especially on an empty stomach. However, if you like to live dangerously culinary-wise, see the recipes at the end of this report from the Seattle-Post Intelligencer on the Puyallap Fair. (“Puyallup” does not sound too appetizing, though, does it?)
Walk fast to stay ahead of the grim reaper
Mark (in blue) blocked by slow-paced tourists
I added another 10 miles to my Minnesota State Park trail tally this weekend, leaving me only a few more treks short of the century mark and another patch from the Hiking Club.
My idea of a good walk is moving at the briskest pace possible that can be sustained indefinitely. That really gets my blood pumping and thus it is most invigorating. Besides, then I get to more places faster. The tricky part is getting around those who prefer a more leisurely stroll, such as the tourists who impeded my “push hike” to the Mendenhall Glacier outside Juneau, Alaska last year.
Some people I know have questioned my lust for long striding, but a recent report by gerontologists provides support for fast walking – it adds as many as 15 years to one’s life. Specifically, a 74-year old who walks at a gait of 1.4 meters per second (3.1 miles per hour) is more than twice as likely to be alive in 10 years than those oldsters who dawdle at 0.4 m/s (0.9 mph). Now that’s a stat for getting to where you’re going “pdq” (pretty darn quick).*
“Walk steadily and with a purpose. The wandering man knows of certain ancients, far gone in years, who have staved off infirmities and dissolution by earnest walking, hale fellows close upon eighty and ninety, but brisk as boys.”
– Charles Dickens
*Disclaimer: A more logical conclusion is that anyone who can walk this fast at age 74 must be very healthy – possibly just by luck and good genes. Thus, high gait speed is correlated with long life, not the cause of it.